Bogus Gold

Because someone has to comment on American Idol and politics at the same time, right?... RIGHT?!

Friday, May 16, 2008

Friday Wine News
Good news for those of us who like a little well crafted noise as well as a glass of wine with our evening meal from across the pond.

Playing a certain type of music can enhance the way wine tastes, research by psychologists suggests.

The Heriot Watt University study found people rated the change in taste by up to 60% depending on the melody heard. ...

Professor Adrian North said the study could lead retailers to put music recommendations on their wine bottles.

Unfortunately I detected a flaw in the research methodology.

The research involved 250 students at the university who were offered a free glass of wine in exchange for their views.

Four types of music were played - Carmina Burana by Orff ("powerful and heavy"), Waltz of the Flowers from The Nutcracker by Tchaikovsky ("subtle and refined"), Just Can't Get Enough by Nouvelle Vague ("zingy and refreshing") and Slow Breakdown by Michael Brook ("mellow and soft")

College students? Very unrefined palates as well as generally poor musical taste. And there was a glaring omission from the musical choices presented.



Here are your recommended Hall & Oates wine pairings:

Cabernet Sauvignon: The study concluded Cab best paired with "powerful and heavy" music, so kick back with a nice glass of Staggs Leap Cabernet and "Maneater" on your iPod.

Chardonnay: Our study found this went best with "zingy and refreshing" sounds. So how about a glass of Chalk Hill Chardonnay with "Rich Girl" on the stereo.

Pinot Noir: No word on this wine in the study, but I'm going to induce that "subtle and refined" is called for here. Which makes pairing a delicious Alderbrook Pinot Noir with "I Can't Go for That (No Can Do)."

Merlot: "Mellow and soft" is our final category, and I'm assuming that's a natural fit for a nice merlot. So pair a glass of Titus Merlot with "Sara Smile."

Thursday, May 15, 2008

Radio Ga-Ga part XVIII; Also Why Chamberlain Was Really Wrong
Exhibit A in why I listen to less and less talk radio: Watch conservative talker Kevin James get pinned to the mat with ease by Chris Matthews over a wee historical point James had raised.

It's not that I expect everyone in the world to posses an encyclopedic command of every historical detail. But those who want to rant and demagogue over the appeasement of Neville Chamberlain should damn well crack open a book, or at very least consult Wikipedia, before attempting to lecture the nation about its applicability to a modern situation.

Chris Matthews is an intellectual lightweight about such things. But he toyed with James so easily before swatting him aside it was pathetic. Too many conservative talkers these days merely have the talk part. They replace intellectual firepower with a fair to middlin' stylistic aping of the genre's big dogs. Shall I name some names? Sean Hannity (obviously) is the king of this game. But Mike Gallagher didn't get the job due to his incredible intellect either. On the flip side Laura Ingraham is surely smart enough but she plays the role like a successful con job far too often. Michael Savage is so smart he turned an outright parody of the style into a hugely lucrative career.

But the act works. P. T. Barnum said no one ever went broke underestimating the intelligence of the public, and this whole talk radio industry tests that more and more.

For the record, the answer to Matthews' cocksure assertion that, "What Chamberlain did wrong was give Hitler half of Chekoslovakia" is...

No, you idiot. Chamberlain allowed a weaker power in constant violation of international treaties to bully the stronger free world time after time after time, watching passively as this same weaker power built itself to military parity and eventually superiority to his own nation. By the time Munich came around in 1938 Chamberlain's political career was so deeply vested in appeasement he could not politically afford to take a firm stand. He felt compelled to prove appeasement worked, rendering war unnecessary. Chamberlain watched Germany renounce Versailles, march into the Rhineland, annex Austria, flaunt military re-armament agreements, and on and on and on. His continual unwillingness to forcefully stand up to this early on in favor of keeping relations warm and communications open was one of the leading causes of the Second World War. Post-war documents show how weak Hitler's cause was. Any of half a dozen major showdowns with the West might have deposed Hitler by internal German opposition, because he could not afford to lose any of them. But because of Chamberlain's constant caving in to Germany's increasingly outrageous demands and actions he made Hitler look stronger and stronger and stronger among the German people. Chamberlain watched a yipping pup the allies could have kicked to the curb easily grow into a fearsome monster capable of destroying civilization because he was so committed to the principle of appeasement that he could be played the fool by anyone who didn't share his personal devotion to peace at any price. Munich was merely the capstone on the grave of appeasement. The plot itself was dug over years and years by a constant policy.

This is stuff Democrats like John F. Kennedy considered a basic lesson of the Second World War. Neither America's pig-headed disengagement from the world, nor Chamberlain style appeasement must be allowed to enable another power-hungry dictator to threaten the world's peace again. The partisan opposition to this perspective used to come from the Taft wing of the Republican Party (who favored the isolationist rather than appeasement position it should be noted). Now this new Chamberlainism bubbles up from many in the Democratic rank and file who seem to believe, like Matthews, that anything short of a full-blown Munich sellout to aggressive dictators is not a mistake. Because it averts war and war is bad, mmkay? That this happens to be precisely Chamberlain's foreign policy (remembering that Munich came as a crisis that nearly drove even Chamberlain himself to declare war) totally escapes them.

But I doubt Chris Matthews wants me on his show regardless. And I'm sure as hell not wasting my time trying to educate the talker-pretender. So pass the word along if you care.
The Problem With Green John's Cap-and-Trade Plan
When I first heard about John McCain's fondness for something called "cap and trade" I thought it must be an odd coincidence. Perhaps he was misunderstood and was dubbing himself "Cap'n Trade," to characterize his free trade positions in contrast to his Democratic rivals' aversion to NAFTA and similar free trade policies. I pictured him in a captain's hat with his hands on his hips proclaiming himself "Cap'n Trade" here to save us from the Dems protectionist policies.

But alas, amusing as it might be to picture John McCain in a "Cap'n Crunch" looking hat, the truth wasn't really so amusing at all. It turns out McCain is a committed advocate of the "cap and trade" system for reducing carbon dioxide emissions.

While it may be fun to take another futile charge against the Washington consensus that we can control the weather by regulating our production of a single gas, I had no illusions we were getting that kind of candidate in McCain. He's about as green as they come on the right side of the aisle. He's explained how he draws inspiration from his hero Teddy Roosevelt, leading him to buy into things such as the need to preserve the "pristine" mosquito swamps of the tundra in ANWR from evil capitalist oil drilling much like we preserve the Grand Canyon.

Incidentally I too believe the Republican Party needs a credible environmental agenda. However I believe that agenda doesn't need to conflict with the basic principles underlying the rest of the party's beliefs. And much to my chagrin, the Republican candidate for president has embraced a system hard to swallow in that regard. To quote Lawrence Kudlow:

As good as John McCain’s pro-growth, supply-side tax plan is, his cap-and-trade strategy unveiled this morning is very hard for conservatives to swallow. The whole cap-and-trade experience in Europe and elsewhere reveals that this is a huge government command-and-control operation that taxes, spends, and regulates on a grand scale. The “cap” part rolls back production to an extent that undermines economic growth. The European cap-and-trade plans are prohibitively expensive, and are themselves hostile to economic growth.

My main problem with McCain's embrace of the cap and trade position (once I choke down my belief that it's a solution to a non-problem in the first place) is that there are many more intelligent ways to assert ones' environmentalism - including belief in human caused global warming - while showing complete respect for the free market.

Bjørn Lomborg provides a great counter example. Like McCain he has no doubt regarding man-made global warming. But unlike McCain he evaluates things through a far more empirical cost/benefit lens... a perspective that sounds strangely more aligned with the free market principles of American conservatives than the man running to lead them.

Some excerpts from his recent interview by National Review's Kathryn Jean Lopez (all emphases mine):

Lopez: How can John McCain legitimately differentiate himself from the Democratic nominee on climate policy?

Lomborg: I’m no expert on American politics.

I note that Obama and Clinton have called McCain’s plan “too timid” — but I also note that the three of them are all supporting, in varying levels, the Warner-Lieberman Bill on climate change, which looks set to be a massive subsidy-fest that would achieve very little for the environment, at great cost.

McCain could dramatically differentiate himself by being the only candidate acknowledging that promising cuts in the near future just means economic pain for no gain. He could stand out by acknowledging that promising dramatic reductions in the far-off future is simply sweeping the hard choices under the rug for now, for no gain. Wishful thinking is not sound public policy.


We need the technological solutions that will allow our societies to transition cost-effectively to low-carbon energy by mid-century. McCain could recognize that this is a century-long problem which needs century-long, smart solutions.

Lopez: You are about to hold your Copenhagen Consensus 2008. What happened there that John McCain (and the rest of us) should know about?

Lomborg: The Copenhagen Consensus 2008 gets some of the world’s greatest thinkers together to prioritize solutions to the world’s greatest problems: air pollution, conflict, disease, education, global warming, malnutrition/hunger, sanitation/water, subsidies and trade barriers, terrorism and women/development.

The prioritization is based on research that has been created specifically for the project by top economists in each field, identifying the best investments we could make in order to achieve good in the world.

Politicians like John McCain prioritize every day. The message from Copenhagen Consensus is that when it comes to battling environmental and developmental problems, we need to be explicit about our priorities, and talk about where we can do the most good first.

We should not focus on the problems that get the most publicity, but the issues where we can do the most good.
Analysis from Copenhagen Consensus research shows that cutting CO2 now will do 90 cents worth of good for every dollar spent — a bad deal. However, investing in research and development of new energy technologies will do $16 worth of good for every dollar spent — while being much cheaper. Let us do the smartest things first, in dealing with all of the world’s problems, including global warming.

John McCain does not have a problem being concerned about the environment. That's actually both laudable and especially needed among Republican candidates who are all too often mute about such issues. Provided he's being respectful of conservative principles and sensible rather than hysterically reactive I don't even have a problem with his complete agreement with the global warming crowd. McCain's problem is that he's copying the means as well as the values of the left when it comes to this issue.

A conservative should instinctively distrust huge multi-national plans relying on command and control economic models, no matter what lip service they pay to free markets. He should have seriously investigated any number of alternatives before calling for something so drastic and so antithetical to the values of the right. That he has not done so doesn't brand him a "maverick" as much as a "follower" when it comes to this matter. And we deserve better.

Tuesday, May 13, 2008

American Idol Season Seven: Top 3
Wow did they try to cram a lot of performances into a single hour this week, considering all the significance they like to give penultimate weeks. Hell's Kitchen must be doing pretty terrific in the ratings to avoid getting pushed back half an hour or so. This lead to a couple minor annoyances with arrangements that were simply too short. But it also lead to a (much better managed) quick pace that came across as put up or shut up time for the contestants.

The gimmick this year was by and large the same as the past few final threes; though the presence of Clive Davis was replaced by shadowy reference to "the producers" this year. I don't mind the change.

The format began with a song one of the judges chose for each Idolateer. Followed by a song they chose for themselves. Followed by one chosen by Clive Davis "the producers" for them. Simple enough? Well considering the considerable commercial time and mugging for the camera by Ryan Seacrest and the judges it seemed fairly ambitious to squeeze into an hour. Take the jump to see how it went.


Monday, May 12, 2008

Star Tribune on McCain's Judicial Position: Lying By Proxy
One might be inclined to sympathize with the troubled local media entity, the Star Tribune, what with its well publicized financial troubles lately. Why they've even apparently resorted to outsourcing their time-honored tradition of dishonestly smearing Republican candidates to their Letters to the Editor writers.

I suppose if I was an investor looking at the struggling Strib's bottom line, I too might see the advantages of this strategy: no need to pay for the writing; no need to accurately cite any sources; and the paper can still prominently feature the commentary as its own "Letter of the Day."

See how easy it is?

John McCain said in a speech last week that, as president, he would appoint federal judges who favored overturning Roe vs. Wade. He also said he thinks that federal judges should be responsive to the will of the people.

Wow, that's a pretty major assertion. I mean, the Roe v. Wade controversy has been THE major judicial appointment sticking point on both sides of the aisle for over three decades now. And not only that, apparently John McCain also turned his back on a generation of conservative judicial philosophy that explicitly condemns judges who rule according to their own notion regarding the "will of the people" rather than the plain wording of our laws? Double-wow! Major blockbuster! I wonder why the Star Tribune failed to take note of it in the only news story they carried regarding this speech.

I suppose they might be forgiven for reasons a bit more relevant than budget cuts. Reasons like: John McCain said no such thing. Really. Not even close. You can read the entire transcript of the speech in question (or watch the video of it) if you'd like.

There is no mention of Roe vs. Wade in the speech whatsoever. The thrust of the speech is devoted to respecting the restrained role of the judiciary. How could one possibly take that speech and make the asserrtion that it had anything to due with judges ruling based on the "will of the people" rather than in respect to the law? Apparently from this section of the speech, which I'll present in context:

The executive, legislative, and judicial branches are often wary of one another's excesses, and they should be. They seek to keep each other within bounds, and they are supposed to. And though you wouldn't always know it from watching the day-to-day affairs of modern Washington, the framers knew exactly what they were doing, and the system of checks and balances rarely disappoints.

There is one great exception in our day, however, and that is the common and systematic abuse of our federal courts by the people we entrust with judicial power. For decades now, some federal judges have taken it upon themselves to pronounce and rule on matters that were never intended to be heard in courts or decided by judges. With a presumption that would have amazed the framers of our Constitution, and legal reasoning that would have mystified them, federal judges today issue rulings and opinions on policy questions that should be decided democratically. Assured of lifetime tenures, these judges show little regard for the authority of the president, the Congress, and the states. They display even less interest in the will of the people. And the only remedy available to any of us is to find, nominate, and confirm better judges.

That is the ONLY mention of the phrase "will of the people" in the entire speech. Feel free to fact check that assertion. Unlike the Star Tribune, I provided a link to the source so you don't have to take my word for it.

As anyone above moron-level intellect can observe, the phrase "the will of the people" above is not presented as the standard by which judges are supposed to be deciding cases. It is presented as a further criticism of judges who are ruling on matters that don't belong in front of the judiciary in the first place. The phrase McCain used describing this improper judicial behavior is: "... federal judges today issue rulings and opinions on policy questions that should be decided democratically."

McCain's point in a nutshell: If I think the speed limit on my street should be lowered to 20 mph because there are lots of kids playing in it, I shouldn't go to a judge but rather to the relevant elected officials. That's how the system is set up. But if I DO go a a judge over it, a proper judge should tell me he's got no authority to change that kind of thing. However some judges ignore that basic issue and issue rulings over these kind of issues where the constitution does not give them proper authority. And John McCain says this is wrong and he doesn't want to appoint those kind of judges. Hearing that point, where does our Star Tribune "Letter of the Day" run with it?

Send that man back to Constitution school! It's hard to believe he's served so long and still hasn't learned the basic division of responsibilities among the three branches of the U.S. government.

Yeah, especially hard to believe when he called our this basic division explicitly in the preceding paragraph. One might even begin to conclude that John McCain very obviously and demonstrably knows about this distinction, and therefore someone asserting the contrary is serving some particular agenda above and beyond telling the truth.

Our outsourced editorialist continues...

The judiciary is the one branch of our government that is responsible to the Constitution, the law and to justice. It is the only branch that protects the minority from the potential tyranny of the majority.

Okay, that's just stupid and has nothing to do with John McCain so let me dispense with it myself. Every branch of government is responsible to the Constitution. Every branch of our government has its authority and the limits of its powers enumerated therein. And every branch of government has a role in protecting the minority from the tyranny of the majority because that's the basic distinction between a Republic, which is what our Constitution established, and a pure democracy, which is little better than mob rule.

So... We'll now go back to our letter writer's dishonest dissembling of McCain's remarks.

If, perchance, judicial justice matches the will of the people, it's a nice coincidence. But judges should never base their decisions on what the people say they want. And the selection of judges should be based on their ability to know the law and to administer justice fairly. Their selection should not be based on any pre-judging of cases that might come before them.

Shame on McCain!

Gosh. One thinks our letter writer might agree with the fellow who said this:

Federal courts are charged with applying the Constitution and laws of our country to each case at hand. There is great honor in this responsibility, and honor is the first thing to go when courts abuse their power. The moral authority of our judiciary depends on judicial self-restraint, but this authority quickly vanishes when a court presumes to make law instead of apply it. A court is hardly competent to check the abuses of other branches of government when it cannot even control itself.

One Justice of the Court remarked in a recent opinion that he was basing a conclusion on "my own experience," even though that conclusion found no support in the Constitution, or in applicable statutes, or in the record of the case in front of him. Such candor from the bench is rare and even commendable. But it was not exactly news that the Court had taken to setting aside the facts and the Constitution in its review of cases, and especially in politically charged cases. Often, political causes are brought before the courts that could not succeed by democratic means, and some federal judges are eager to oblige. Politicians sometimes contribute to the problem as well, abdicating responsibility and letting the courts make the tough decisions for them. One abuse of judicial authority inspires more. One act of raw judicial power invites others. And the result, over many years, has been a series of judicial opinions and edicts w andering farther and farther from the clear meanings of the Constitution, and from the clear limits of judicial power that the Constitution defines.

Sometimes the expressed will of the voters is disregarded by federal judges, as in a 2005 case concerning an aggravated murder in the State of Missouri. As you might recall, the case inspired a Supreme Court opinion that left posterity with a lengthy discourse on international law, the constitutions of other nations, the meaning of life, and "evolving standards of decency." These meditations were in the tradition of "penumbras," "emanations," and other airy constructs the Court has employed over the years as poor substitutes for clear and rigorous constitutional reasoning. The effect of that ruling in the Missouri case was familiar too. When it finally came to the point, the result was to reduce the penalty, disregard our Constitution, and brush off the standards of the people themselves and their elected representatives.

Well... perhaps not. Because that all comes from the same speech which our letter writer came away from concluding McCain wants to appoint judges exactly like the ones he took the time to explicitly call out and condemn.

It's quite clear from the speech that McCain's reference to the "will of the people" is expressed as his respect for the laws properly enacted by their representatives. This is hardly an unusual position for a long term senator of either party. It's also quite clear that he is condemning the behavior of judges who take it upon themselves to defy the proper limits of their authority AND the will of the people as expressed by the legislation legally enacted by their representatives in order to advance some personal agenda.

There's probably some shame called for here. But it doesn't belong with John McCain. It belongs with the letter writer who was either too stupid or too dishonest to tell the truth about John McCain's position on the judiciary, and especially to the Star Tribune which not only printed the unsourced accusation, but chose to feature it as its "Letter of the Day."

Saturday, May 10, 2008

American Idol Season Seven: Season Performance Highlights
Here's a little Idol weekend fix between the top four and the Top Three Gonzo Whopper Extravaganza™ (now with sprinkles!!) next week. As we have whittled this thing down from the Top 24 to the top 3 there is an inevitable tendency to forget all but the very best and most outstanding of the performances to date. But in my opinion this has been perhaps the strongest Idol season ever, and fine performances worth remembering abound.

So here, in my personal opinion, are the performance highlights of Season Seven. They come with just a touch of commentary; but more importantly they come with links to the videos of the performances, so you can check them out and see if you agree or disagree with my choices.

(Performances in italics are the ones I believe stand out as Idol classics regardless of the season.)

Take the jump to see the highlights.


Thursday, May 8, 2008

McCain & Mitt - A Good Fit?
I suppose I might be a disturbing signal of Republican ennui in the upcoming election because I can't get very interested in the typically base-exciting speculation about whom the Republican presidential nominee will pick for his running mate.

Kathryn Lopez makes a very good case for Mitt Romney today, which I by and large agree with on the entire left side of my brain. On the other hand, the whole right side of my brain tells me...

A. These guys don't fit together.
B. These guys probably can't stand each other.
C. Isn't this election over yet? Can't we talk about who's going to be the next Top Chef (Richard is my bet, incidentally) or something else more interesting?

I dunno, I guess I'm slowly coming to the conclusion that the American people are ready to let the Democrats try out their version of Euro-socialism, which is doomed to fail and to do it painfully, but eh... what can you do? The Republican Congress, more than George W. Bush, is responsible for killing the Republican brand in the mind of the voter. The president was, however, responsible for cementing all the worst impressions in key moments that have stuck in the public's mind.

If I thought my electoral choice was between a corrupt, big-spending, war-mongering party which wanted to selectively impose their favorite Christian ideals to micromanage my life, or the untested party who disagreed with that approach and was also favored by my favorite Hollywood celebs I'd be leaning toward them as well. I don't think this is the real choice of course, but my opinion can't reshape the narrative by November.

Nor can any vice presidential nominee. That's going to fall upon the Big Mac himself. And the only way he can do it effectively is by running in a manner decidedly unattractive to the party die-hards who think they can keep running like it's 1980 in perpetuity.

That being said, Mitt Romney's best traits in a 2008 election are, to me, the ones he barely ran on at all in the primary: he's a super-smart private sector executive who's not really that interested in any "culture war" matters. That Romney would mesh nicely with McCain. The "culture warrior" who emerged during the campaign does not, and frankly if we want one of those on the ticket McCain should pick Mike Huckabee who at least plays that role with some affability and charm.

Really I have to think that this is one of those tickets that only looks good on paper. I simply don't see McCain and Mitt as a viable ticket. The elements about them which could serve as compliments only seem to exacerbate the elements that made them so bitter toward one another campaigning.

Tuesday, May 6, 2008

American Idol Season Seven: Top 4
We're coming round the final bend and into the home stretch. In last weekend's Kentucky Derby they only euthanized one non-winning participant. In American Idol we do it to all the losers - albeit only metaphorically. Though... note to Fox, who's reportedly looking for suggestions to spice up next season to improve ratings. Compare the drama over how Eight Belles loss in the Kentucky Derby compares to your own contestants being voted off. Really no contest for the drama involved.

Just a little gallows humor to pass the remaining time filling in for an Idol season that seems destined to come down to David vs. David. Will no Goliath step the hell up?! Considering that "Goliath" in this case would have to be a
pretty black diva, or a dreadlocked tenor with big blue eyes, I'm skeptical.

Anyway tonight's theme was the Rock and Roll Hall of Fame. Which apparently meant contestants could choose damn near any great song from the past they wanted, as long as it wasn't too current. Pretty consistent with the whole season's emphasis on the old, really. I'm alright with it when David Cook or Jason Castro rearrange things and make them sound current (which is all too rare in Jason's case, but does happen). Sayesha and David A. sound too frequently Glee Club over this sort of stuff. But Sayesha has been improving lately and David A. never gets serious criticism regardless so we'd just have to wait and see what turned up.

Each contestant sang two songs, and the judges gave their normal "right after each performance" critiques, so as not to confuse Paula once again. Though frankly, based on their comments, all the judges seemed more confused than usual anyway. The contestants once again sang two songs apiece, but had to cut them down to about 90 second arrangements as a result. Not an ideal compromise but, eh. On to the recaps....


Monday, May 5, 2008

The Winner Vs. The Ego Trip
As the Obamessiah's poll numbers recover from that embarrassingly off-script crazy pastor saga (largely due to a return to the hands-off media coverage that enabled his rise in the first place), the Democratic presidential race is returning to a study writ-large regarding the mental state of the Democratic electorate. To the extent you can set aside your belief that voters are by and large rational creatures it has its own special fascination. Especially in contrast to the substance that characterized the parallel Republican race earlier.

Let's reflect on that latter point for a moment. In the Republican primary there was much fluff and pompery attempted by many candidates trying to skate past the issues with airy proclamations that they represented the next Ronald Reagan. Time after time this strategy failed, as voters held candidates accountable for their positions on immigration (which almost sank McCain's campaign last summer), war (which resurrected McCain's campaign in the winter), domestic security, federal spending, the environment, and many more. The important thing was, there were clear differences between the Republican candidates regarding their policies around these issues, and what the candidates themselves represented. Rudy Giuliani was seen as the social liberal who would be a foreign policy hawk and a law and order guy at home. Mitt Romney was the guy who adopted all the right socially conservative positions (but perhaps too conveniently close in time to his presidential run) and brought a whiz-bang understanding of private sector business wisdom. John McCain was the "maverick" who may occasionally thwart his own party but possessed of an iron sense of honor, who would never compromise with terrorists and who's resume gave instant credibility over matters of war and peace. The list goes on (Huckabee, Thompson, Hunter, etc.). These were candidates with DEEP resumes and considerable track records of accomplishments by which to measure them, forcing them to explain themselves to one another and to the electorate exhaustively.

Flash over to the Democratic race and one finds plenty of candidates with equally impressive resumes (Biden, Richardson, Dodd). The difference was how little impact they made upon the race, while inexperienced candidates with little to offer but rhetoric soared to the top of the polls. Obama, Edwards, and yes, Hillary.

It should be remembered that Hillary Clinton is only an "experienced politician" in the least conventional sense of the word. Yes, she's been close to matters of the utmost political importance for decades as First Lady of Arkansas and then of the United States. But after the one major political issue she had unquestionable accountability for (Hillarycare) went down in flames, she was carefully protected from clear positions of authority or accountability until she became a U. S. Senator years later. Her Senate record is weighty compared to Obama and Edwards, but hardly compared to most anyone else. And when it comes to matters of policy substance, it has been pointed out repeatedly there's almost no difference between Obama and Hillary (Edwards offered a slightly stronger whiff of anti-capitalism, but he's gone now and both remaining candidates have subsequently adopted his populist rhetoric too when necessary).

The real question is, what the heck is going on in the Democratic race? Why has that entire party chucked experience out the window and driven themselves mad over a choice between two major unknowns? Why has half the nation decided they could chant words like "hope" and "progress" and not have to worry about being bitten by the far more consequential presidential traits like "inexperience" and "ambition" in the end?

I think a keen look into part of the answer comes in this revealing piece in New York Magazine today attempting to rationalize the media's crush on Obama.

Contrary to the vast-left-wing-conspiracy visions of the right, much of the press never really loved the Clintons—they just feared and loathed their enemies more. The first people I ever heard viciously ragging on Bill Clinton, early in 1992, were a liberal reporter covering him and a writer then working as a Democratic staffer on the Hill. Part of it was visceral suspicion of the Clintonian political M.O. and character. And part of it, I think, was a kind of half-conscious intragenerational resentment.

Despite conservative conspiracy theories to the contrary, this jives very well with my memories of the Clinton era. The media would fall all over themselves to cover for the Clintons, but became exhausted and frustrated in the effort. They needed the Clintons because they knew how to win against Republicans. They had no one else on deck who seemed capable, as the subsequent George W. Bush presidency bitterly taught them. One has to remember, Democrats always believe their Republican opponent is unbelievably worse than their nominee. They thought Carter and Mondale were clearly superior to Ronald Reagan. Michael Dukakis was clearly superior to George H. W. Bush. And of course Al Gore, John Kerry, and any random third grader were clearly superior to George W. Bush. So to them this strange ability to win the presidency has little to do with the quality of their candidate. It all has to do with some mysterious formula of winning over the rubes who keep getting it wrong. The Clintons seemed to have this magical touch, and it grudgingly won over the liberal media.

That, in a nutshell, was at the heart of Hillary's once "inevitable" nomination. She didn't have to prove she was better than the other Democrats. It was presumed any Democratic candidate would be "better." The Clintons weren't about "better," they were about "winning."

So how the heck did Obamania emerge amid all this? Now we come to the most interesting part (subsequent emphasis mine).

...it’s ironic that the media and their fellow upscale Americans are now disposed to like Obama precisely because he resembles them in so many ways. The difference is he’s relatively unsullied, an exquisite, idealized version of themselves: educated, thoughtful, twigged to nuance, a lovely writer, well-traveled, witty, cool, dignified, candid, a little quixotic, a clued-in grown-up but not yet ruined by the ugly facts of Washington life.

And, mirabile dictu, a perfectly postmodern embodiment of compromise between the hard binaries of race and age. He’s both white and black. Born on the very cusp of the baby boom and Generation X, he’s both oldish and youngish. And as a skinny, athletic, gentle-seeming, virtually metrosexual man, he nearly splits the difference on gender as well.

What we're seeing here is the triumph of egotism over compromise. If Hillary Clinton's appeal was that she had that mysterious "winning" formula, Barack Obama's appeal is to every Democrat who believes they themselves know how to win too. It's as if a mass movement all believe that, "Sure John Kerry and Al Gore and Michael Dukakis, and on and on might not understand it. But I, (insert individual upscale Democrat's name here), am smarter than them. I know how to beat those nasty Republicans. And look - there's a candidate that is like an 'idealized version of myself.' He and I don't need Hillary in order to win the White House. It's a new era and finally people like me are calling the shots."

Why would a mass of people come to believe this all together? Because Obama's campaign rhetoric is an explicit demagogic appeal to this impulse. "We are the change we've been waiting for" is the thing in a nutshell, swelling the vanity of the individual voter into a cult of personality around Obama.

So where does Obama's appeal increasingly fall flat? Among anyone who looks at Obama and is unable to see their own idealized reflection. Don't take my word for it. Here's how the same article describes them:

Uneducated white people, residents of the so-called C and D counties, and the elderly—in other words, Hillary Clinton voters

There's a serious implication here, which I think Republican strategists ought to chew on. Hillary Clinton remains far and away the candidate more likely to win over any Republican in November. Why? Because while those "uneducated white people, etc." may not be enough in number to sway the Democratic nomination, they're far more significant in the general election.

Obama's cult of personality is built around a shared ego-trip. Hillary's campaign is (now that she's had to actually battle to win the thing) built around tough campaigning and often shameless pandering campaigning to the key demographics that swing elections. You want to know the Clinton's special "winning formula"? That's it.

With most every other key indicator favoring the Democrats in the general election, that Clinton "winning formula" is positioned perfectly for a November victory. Voters are by and large ready for a new party in the White House. Perhaps the Republican "maverick" represents enough of a break from the Bush presidency to suffice, but I wouldn't bet upon it. I don't like John McCain's chances against Hillary Clinton in November at all. But, of course, Obama stands a very good chance of keeping her name off the ticket.

Thursday, May 1, 2008

Climate Change: Despite The Evidence, You Must Remain Alarmed
In the latest effort to scare the bejeezus out of the public that mankind's grievous unnatural ways are causing the planet to boil, we learn we are not to let the complete absence of warming for ... oh about the next decade or so... dissuade us from our belief in man-made global warming.

Global warming will be "put on hold" over the next decade because of natural climate variations, scientists claim. ...

The findings suggest the official models used to predict short-term global warming patterns are too crude. ...

But scientists say rising carbon dioxide levels caused by man will send temperatures up again after the natural trends peak and will continue to rise in following decades.

Not to give my moral superiors like Al Gore the vapors, but I'm having a hard time seeing how reliance on the long-term forecasts of models which were "too crude" to accurately perform short-term forecasting remains a great idea.

Unlike those easily persuaded head-nodders who work in the decidedly non-scientific field of science journalism, I've actually done predictive modeling. No, not in the field of climate science. My modeling has been done in far simpler areas around particular business problems. But since I'm speaking to modeling in general rather than climatology in specific it doesn't really matter.

The point is I'm unaware of any good predictive modeling that gets all the short term forecasting wrong yet remains accurate in its long term forecasting. There's nothing terribly magical or mysterious here, it's just as basic as it sounds. Long term forecasts are based on the accumulation of all those short term results over longer periods of time. If your models can't get the short term predictions right, your long term predictions are garbage. Period.

And this is far from the first time we've found major problems with the sacred climate models upon which so many politicians seem intent on browbeating us into accepting as unquestionable sources of climate truth.

My belief is that the earth's climate is so dizzyingly complex we've barely scratched the surface of understanding it. Predictive models are therefore sure to be "too crude" to serve any cause more complex than improving our understanding of the climate by testing predictions against evidence and making continual refinements. That's not as glamorous, sexy, or frankly useful as a political tool as the comic book notion that a bunch of super smart scientists can predict the future of the climate based on mystical formulas they've put into Big Computers which are far too complicated for you to understand, so don't ask to see them.

I do find it troubling that the green propaganda machine has now so thoroughly cowed the public that it's entirely plausible people will now sit back, watch the earth cool for a decade, and remain unshaken in their belief that the earth's cooling is no reason to stop believing we're causing global warming.

(h/t Ace)

Tuesday, April 29, 2008

American Idol Season Seven: Top 5
Tonight's official Idol theme was "the Songs of Neil Diamond." Its unofficial theme was "frenetic pacing." For whatever reason the Idol producers thought they could cram 10 songs, judges comments, Ryan Seacrest's vamping for the camera, and all their product placements into the approximately twenty-seven minutes out of the hour of airtime not already given over to showing commercials. It got a little frantic.

And that's a shame because Neil Diamond has some damned good material which would enable the contestants to show almost any facet of performance they wanted to. Or rather they would without the 90 second per performance caveat. Some handled it better than others. The judges were not among those who handled it well.

Neil's coaching, what was shown of it anyway, was pretty bland. He liked everyone equally apparently, making Santa Claus look harsh by judging between naughty and nice. I'm suddenly sentimental for last season's Queen week when Brian May sneeringly forbade a contestant from doing something stupid with a particular arrangement. We need more mentors with some spirit to them. I know, I know, they're really only there to sell their own records. But come ON! Give us some red meat from time to time.

The recaps this week are going to take the contestants in order, but I'm combining comments about both of their performances. I'm not going to let myself get as fouled up as Paula Abdul did trying to react one performance at a time. So let's get to the recaps...


Political Diatribe of the Week
I suppose it's about time I mentioned something political, since that's the "other" topic this blog is allegedly about. The problem I'm having with writing about politics lately is that it's becoming both to big and too small at once. We're in the process of choosing the next leader of the free world who will wield to power to inflict and/or relieve decades of misery upon bazillions of people. And yet we're stuck talking about some crazy preacher in Chicago ad nauseum.

For the record I don't care about the crazy preacher. I read enough early on the get the gist of the matter. Obama chose a big flashy black church to cement his radical street-cred in Chicago which he needed to launch his political career there. It worked. Whether he simultaneously got any legitimate spiritual fulfillment out of it is between him and the good Lord. Whether he heard some nasty crazy rantings from the pulpit there is pretty much a certainty. He almost certainly had no idea he'd be running for president twenty years later, and none of that stuff was going to damage him in the world of Chicago politics.

It's a special kind of crazy we're going through which allows such an unseasoned and unknown politician run to the front of the pack of likely presidential contenders in the first place. Not that I agree with Geraldine Ferraro about much, but she was certainly right when she noted his popularity is rooted in his skin color. Liberal whites want to atone for the nation's racist sins by electing a black president. They thought they found one far enough removed from the racially polarizing fringe they could get it accomplished. Now this whole crazy preacher thing threatens that outcome, and I'd imagine it pisses them off incredibly as a result.

Because you have to realize this was never about electing Barack Obama in the first place. It was about white liberals making a fashionable statement about themselves, showing how "inclusive" and "diverse" they are... especially compared to those nasty white male Republicans... by choosing a black candidate over all the white ones. Aren't you impressed by how progressive that proves they are? By the statement it makes to the whole world about how cool a nation we've become?

This is the overarching reason Obama is having limited appeal with the Democratic party's traditional lunch pail voting block. The party members who are looking for a candidate who can best answer the question, "What are you going to do for ME," see little to support in Obama. He's a junior senator without any major accomplishments to his name. He talks about courage and new politics but he's got nothing in his record backing it up. Like so much of his career in the Illinois Senate, his record of accomplishments reads like one big vote for "present."

Back when some Republicans were still hot on the notion of nominating Condoleezza Rice for president, I had to point out that if she looked like Dick Cheney no one would possibly think of her as a presidential candidate. Those supporting her simply liked the idea of stealing the "black" and "female" identity issues from the opposition party. Well those of you who thought that was ever a good idea, take a look across the aisle and see how well it's working out for the Democrats. Identity politics and symbolism over substance feels great at first but wow can it turn ugly in a hurry.

Thursday, April 24, 2008

Purple People Eaters, Part Deaux
Time for a little sports blogging, because it's hardly spring and already I can't wait for fall.

The NFL draft is coming up this weekend. And here in Minnesota we're not too worried about it, because we're already pretty happy with the way the first and third rounds of the draft went for us. It went like this...

EDEN PRAIRIE, Minn. (AP) — Four years ago this week, Jared Allen was an unknown defensive lineman at Division I-AA Idaho State projected to be little more than a long snapper in the NFL.

On Wednesday, the former fourth-round draft pick became the richest defensive player in the league, and is viewed as one of the missing pieces that could propel the Minnesota Vikings into the NFC's elite.

Allen, the All-Pro defensive end who led the league in sacks last season with 15 1/2, was traded from Kansas City to Minnesota in a blockbuster deal, making the Chiefs one of the major players in this weekend's NFL draft and the Vikings a serious contender in the NFC.

Last year we got Adrian Peterson - the BEST running back in the league - in the draft. This year we got the only missing piece in a pretty good defense - a dominating sack-machine at defensive end.

Jared Allen will join my spiritual cousins (hey, we share a surname) Pat and Kevin Williams on a defensive line already the league's best against the run. With the development of Brian Robison, and the occasionally healthy Erasmus James at the other end this should be the very best defensive line in the NFL next season.

Now all we need is for Brad Childress to prove he knows what he's doing and develop Tavaris Jackson into an NFL caliber quarterback and we're in business.

Um... drafting a quarterback in the second round this weekend might not be a bad plan either. Just, you know... as a backup plan. In case Brooks Bollinger gets hurt or something. Not that we're doubting the Tavaris part of the plan or anything.

UPDATE:

Holy crap, Jared Allen has already won over Patrick Reusse! Reusse doesn't even like football. He sees the entire sport as an annoying diversion between the end of baseball and start of arthritis, and makes it apparent in most every column he's forced to write about it. And yet he too seems enthused about an offense with Adrian Peterson and a defense with Jared Allen. Let the Super Bowl planning commence.

Wednesday, April 23, 2008

American Idol Season Seven: Top 6
Andrew Lloyd Weber night. Well they're certainly pulling out the stops on song royalties this year. I have to say, I used to be very into Andy's stuff, back in my musical theater days. He kind of lost my interest round about Phantom of the Opera, mostly because he paired with a lyricist who was total crap (Charles Hart) rather than staying with Tim Rice. It was like Richard Rogers ditching Oscar Hammerstein to pair with... Lorenz Hart. No wait... that actually went in the other order. (Trust me... if you're a musical theater geek or stereotypical gay man, you got a chuckle out of that. The rest of you can simply move on.)

Anyway, we certainly knew the Idolateers would not suffer from narrow choices this week. However there were traps galore lying in that song catalog, and more than one was destined to stumble upon one. As we've seen with the really creative rearrangements this season, there was no reason this night automatically meant "Broadway night." I mean, sure, David Archuleta would probably do a straight up Broadway performance, but David Cook would just as certainly change things up to some kind of edgy rock arrangement, right? Right?!!

That's why you have to watch the show. Or at least read the recaps. Let's get on to those now.


Thursday, April 17, 2008

Your Guns Are Burning!
Nick "Your Schools Are Burning!" Coleman, turns his excitable mind and simile-laden prose to a serious issue today: his inability to write a coherent column.

Oh, also he is apparently against people being shot. I presume there's some lobby in favor of this he wants us to oppose, but that first point seems to get in his way of pointing out whom this might be and how we ought to go about it. There's some blather in there about Glocks and gun sales, but also Minnesota shootings which may have nothing to do with either Glocks or legally obtained firearms; and there's a whole lot about an unintentionally funny demonstration at the state capitol. Oh heck, let's just take a lookie...

I went to a die-in at the State Capitol on Wednesday, marking the anniversary of last year's slaughter at Virginia Tech, where a deranged kid killed 32.

I brought my Glock.

Alright, so Nick went into a "die-in" at Minnesota's State Capitol to commemorate an undoubtedly tragic killing... in Virginia. Clearly those Minnesota legislators are slacking if they're supposed to be accounting for legislative problems in Virginia. Virginia, Minnesota I believe they've got somewhere in the docket. Virginia, as in one of the original thirteen colonies? Not so much. Thanks for breaking this story Nick!

But the truly shocking statement here is that Nick - a self-described licensed concealed gun permit holder - chose to bring his gun to an anti-gun rally! Wow! That's totally a man-bites-dog kind of story! I can't wait to read the significance of this interesting symbolic act!

I didn't really.

Oh. Never mind. He made it up, because engaging in an act of actual irony is so much harder than not doing it and saying you did.

For the record I am reacting to this Nick Coleman column while enjoying his incredible mastery of prose.

Not really.

It would have been weird and crazy to take a gun to an event marking a massacre, especially the very kind of gun used in the massacre. But then again, this country is weird and crazy about guns.

Weirder and crazier to take a gun you're legally licensed to carry along with you than it is to begin a column about the event claiming that you did? I'm not so sure.

I mean if he'd kept the thing concealed and didn't start a spree killing would anyone have actually noticed? See this is where the anti-gun nuts and gun-nuts ought to be able to find some common ground. The firearm in question surely holds the potential for dangerous misuse. But considering that most police forces in the United States equip their officers with the exact same gun Nick is bloviating about today, it's hardly a case where the mere presence of a Glock causes people to start dying. Must we freak out like we're making some nonsensical syllogism every time we see a model of a gun some maniac once used (A mad man killed innocent people with a Glock. Than guy has a Glock. Therefore that guy must be a mad man about to start another killing spree. Eeek!!!)?

I went to a local gun store Wednesday (I have a permit) and found I could get a nifty Glock 19 -- the 9-millimeter semiautomatic model that Cho Seung-Hui used on April 16, 2007 -- for less than what Cho spent.

He bought his Glock for $571 at a Roanoke, Va., gun store. I could have purchased one Wednesday for $550.

It was on sale! Who says Americans don't celebrate history?

I know... the lack of any transition here is kind of jarring to the uninitiated Nick Coleman reader. I should have warned you. And no, I didn't cut out anything. Nick jumped from pretending to carry a gun to a "die-in" at the Minnesota State Capitol to pricing the very gun he was pointedly NOT going to have with him at the event immediately after confessing he would never, ever consider such a "weird and crazy" thing.

And apparently Nick thinks prices should be driven by moral outrage, rather than supply and demand, or the desire of a store owner to turn a profit. A Glock firearm - specifically one of the most common and popular models of one of the most common and popular hand guns in the world - must never come down in price, since a crazy guy once used it to massacre people. In Nick's world that's just common sense. In the real world we have a term for this. It's abbreviated: WTF??!!

The die-in (it was called a lie-in, actually)

...except by Nick Coleman until just now...

...was organized by Protect Minnesota, an umbrella group representing five gun-control organizations pushing for tighter rules on sales and universal background checks on buyers. Thirty-two people wore black T-shirts that said, "Minnesotans Against Being Shot" as well as ribbons of maroon and orange (Virginia Tech's colors) made by families of the victims. One by one, to the solemn beat of a drum, they went down on the Capitol steps and remained motionless, as if asleep.

So... the point of a bunch of people lying down on the Capitol steps was to make people think they were... sleeping? The topic of guns makes people too sleepy or something? I mean, the fact that there's a lobby who thinks they're uniquely opposed to being shot makes me kind of giggle. The fact that people want the Minnesota legislature to do something about campus safety in Virginia makes me groan. But what is this strange reference to sleeping? I mean, didn't Nick call this thing a "die-in" when even the organizers didn't? So shouldn't the reference be "as if dead" rather than "as if asleep"? What's the point of talking about sleeping here at all?
It was like the state Senate, but without the pompous speeches.

Oh. It was all just to set up ... that. He'll be here all week, folks. Tip your waitress.

OK, it was one of those media events that is easy to mock...

Actually, a lot easier to ignore until Nick put his unique stylings on the proceedings.

...and, indeed, it was mocked by a few underemployed members of the gun-rights lobby who couldn't resist the temptation to spoil a somber moment by holding up frat boy signs to the effect that a teacher or student packing heat could have stopped the carnage, which is the kind of thing I wonder about when a cop gets shot.

Funny how those cops continue to carry firearms, eh? I mean... they just get shot anyway. What's the point?

And for the record, I have no problem with juvenile demonstrations receiving juvenile responses. Acting "somber" is not an adequate stand in for being mature and serious about a topic.

Guns don't kill people. People with guns kill people. And sometimes people with guns kill other people with guns. It's as complicated as our feelings, and nobody's come up with a convincing response to slaughters such as Virginia Tech, especially proposals to let college kids carry guns on campus. Rep. Tony Cornish, a Republican from Good Thunder, introduced one such obscenely timed proposal Wednesday. Are you kidding, C