Bogus Gold

Kris Allen won the traditional coin toss last week, and he wisely chose to go second. That means we'll be hearing from Adam first.

Adam Lambert's first song is his personal "best of the season" selection. He's chosen to do "Mad World," which was certainly my favorite of his and a real season highlight when he performed it on "final 8" week. The notes start to build and does this guy have a thing for theatrical prensentation or what? When he goes on solo tours I have this stage show vision like Alice Cooper meets David Bowie meets Clay Aiken. Anyway we've got a thick dry-ice kind of fog hugging the stage while he rises lit in shadowy blue fashion, already having started the tender almost-fragile vocals. There's a definite Twilight kind of thing going on with this performance, though that's just through the visuals. The vocals are as haunting and delicate as when he first performed this. Just like the first time he has the audience hanging on his every note... every nuance. Even simple changes in volume or rises in pitch which hint at the power he's holding back draw screams and applause from the otherwise hushed audience. Ladies and gentlemen... THAT is Glambert at his finest. If you didn't like that, you're probably already rooting for the other guy. The judges were all fawning save for Simon who apparently isn't that into vampires.

Kris Allen's first song reached back to his interesting version of "Ain't No Sunshine When She's Gone," from final nine week. I was kind of hoping to hear him do Kanye's "Heartless" again, but on second thought this was a smarter choice. That one was only done a week ago and would sound too repetitive this close afterward. Also he's doing this one on piano, and I'll bet he's picked the guitar for a later arrangement, so another nice strategic decision there. I really liked this one the first time he did it, and if anything he's gotten better in the interim. One of the things that has turned Kris from window dressing into serious competitor is that he has some serious skill interpreting a song. And in that element he was just flawless tonight. Show me another singer who can make a few bars of nothing but "I know, I know, I know" seem compelling. He told the story... he made it feel intimate... every subtle vocal choice he made seemed to fit right into his overall plan. Not a note missed or a dull moment from start to finish. The judges were once again blown away.

When Seacrest prompted, Simon gave the nod for the first performance round to Kris. But to me they were running dead even. Each one showed exactly what's great about him in a two minute vignette. I saw no separation at all at this point.

Adam Lambert's next song struck me as a little unusual. Simon Fuller picked Sam Cooke's "A Change Is Gonna Come," a seminal soul anthem about the civil rights movement. Some kind of subtle nod to his "lifestyle choice" with a societal message in there? It wasn't Adam's choice if so. But the interesting thing here musically is that I don't think we've heard Adam truly do soul singing this year. Hints of it have been tossed in here or there. But unless this is a total reinterpretation there's no escaping the soul in this song. And... he has no intention of ignoring the soul here. If anything he grabs the opportunity to show yet another musical side to himself early in the song, once again keeping admirable restraint while letting his phrasing and emotion provide the power. And then toward the middle - in a style fitting right in with soul music - he picks it up into his power zone. And yet all that subtle phrasing is still in there, and the decibels are blaring and the notes go higher and higher, and I've got gooseflesh on my arms... in the good way. When the song is over one is tempted to just say, "wow." Unless you're a judge, then you have to babble to yourself mostly nonsensically. Which they did, but they all loved this performance, with Kara calling it his best of the season. I don't often agree with Kara, but it just might have been.

Kris Allen's pick from Simon Fuller was the slightly later but still very socially concious soul hit "What's Going On," by Marvin Gaye. I think we're getting the idea of what's on Fuller's iPod. Anyway it's not a bad choice at all for Kris, and I'm eager to hear what he's going to do with it. We've got the accoustic guitar arrangement with a few accompanyists seated around him on the stage. For some strange reason the guitar almost has a Doobie Brother's vibe going, though the rest of the song is very Kris from the start, He's got quite a groove going, and I almost feel the urge to dance (yet another reason you can be thankful this isn't a video blog). He starts to lose me a bit when he breaks the arrangement into pure rhythm while the music goes quiet to deliver ... some kind of dated lyrics. Ah well. He's back into the groove after that. I'm not quite getting his interpretation here quite as much as his last song, but it sounds really nice all the same. That said the judges comments are kind of stupid about it. I think the biggest problem with this was that it followed both his own flawless first song and Adam's flawless second song, and it just suffers a bit from comparison.

Simon called the second round for Adam, and this time I have to agree.

Adam Lambert has to take on the "championship" song "No Boundaries" next. Let's see what kind of schmaltz Ms. DioGuardi is cranking out these days... For some reason I am reminded strongly of the 80's band Night Ranger listening to this. Adam is trying to give it this big, dramatic stadium rock sound and... the song is not cooperating. Frankly it's kind of dull. Lambert is wrenching emotion out of notes and verses that just don't contain that much power. Honestly there's nothing glaringly wrong about this performance so much as... I don't want to hear this song. At least last year's "Magic Rainbows" had a kind of catchy refrain. Once more this thing strikes me as one of the "serious" attempts by one of the big 80's hair bands. And while Adam's voice is up to the task, wouldn't we rather hear him sing something else? Meh. It's kind of amusing that all the judges seem to agree, but don't want to openly say they hated the song since Kara is sitting right there.

Kris Allen gets the thankless task of getting to perform... that... once again. Right after everyone just heard it and decided it sucked. Oh well. The arrangement is a little different now. Not quite so 80's sounding. Kris starts it more understated, as is true to his strength. It's not sounding so bad on him at first. And then we hit the refrain and I realize what's wrong with this song. The refrain demands full power far too long and it does. not. shut. up. Seriously, it's not so much a proper refrain as a run-on sentence. And then it demands some riffs and arias and then more power and we're right back to the refrain. Jebus. Listening to Kris try to push his voice into places it shouldn't have to go is making me more impressed with Adam by proxy because he didn't make this monster sound that difficult. And Kris is really laboring to keep hitting the notes by the end. He doesn't really screw it up pitch wise, but the strain is painfully evident. The judges are growing less patient with the song now, apparently not caring quite so much if they bruise Kara's feelings. Even Kara suggests it was in too high a key for him. Bah.

Round three is best forgotten. We'll call it a draw. Adam had it on power and vocal skill, but in the early less-shouty moments Kris was definitely making it sound more interesting.

So then... the judges give their parting remarks and just about hand Kris the consolation prize. Umm... guys? It wasn't THAT clear a difference between them. Kris had some pretty excellent moments tonight that took a back seat to no one. Adam was terrific, but not perfect. I think this thing could be closer than they seem to expect.

That said if I had to make a call it would be...

Adam Lambert to win.

I've personally been a fan of his all season. He delivered big in the biggest moment. I think his "Change Is Gonna Come" was the highlight of the night from either contestant. And his "Mad World" was the equal of Kris' best of the night, "Ain't No Sunshine When She's Gone." I don't think anyone is going to be changing their mind on the basis of that last song, so there you have it.

Let's see what America says to that tomorrow night in what promises to be a pretty BIG finale.

UPDATE: The Results

And your Season Eight American Idol is...

KRIS ALLEN

In what will be billed as the biggest shocker in Idol history (but actually wasn't quite so shocking, as many of us were calling for it to be really close even when we predicted Adam to win), Kris Allen fulfilled his role as one of the greatest "dark horses" in Idol history. He joins Kelly Clarkson and David Cook as contestants no one saw emerging when the finals began, but rose to overcome all the expected front runners. It's really a great story, and one of the elements that makes Idol as compelling as it is.

Still it feels a little more shocking this time. By the finale both David Cook and Kelly Clarkson had already seized front-runner status, and were expected to win by the time of their finale. It wasn't until Kris Allen's name was called last night that it finally sank in that he had, indeed, become the favorite.

I think it's underselling what Kris accomplished to try to spin this as some "Gokey voters ruined Idol" thing, as I've seen others do. Last week, with Danny Gokey still in the competition, we learned only 1 million votes separated the top two vote getters. They did not say Adam was the top vote getter and Kris number two. It very well could have been the opposite. Kris was performing brilliantly, even if his style didn't have the dazzle of Adam Lambert. I have no problem believing he won those fans over by his performances, rather than needing some kind of "Christian identity" voter block to carry him.

And so, much like last year, both of the top two are shoo ins to have popular first albums. After that it's up to their own career choices to see where things go from there. I've got a feeling we'll be hearing both their names for a long time to come, and I think that would have been true whichever finalist won.

It's been a great season of Idol this year, despite some of the more annoying producer inspired changes. I'd rank it right up there with the best. And now we go into that long, slow period in between Idol.

Happy trails... see you again for Season Nine.

Danny Gokey gets the lead off spot tonight. Paula Abdul chose his first song. For some reason she thinks Terrence Trent D'Arby is perfect for the Gokester and picks “Dance Little Sister Dance” for him. He doesn't know it. But let's give it a chance. It sounds to be right in his wheelhouse when it comes to range. Dude has some pipes, no doubt. He's really attacking the song, almost sounding angry in his interpretation. He does make strange choices when it comes to breathing, and it results in him sounding out of breath not far in. He scats with a sax player rather lamely. The end is just like the beginning. No emotional or vocal progression even attempted. The judges kind of slobber on him devotedly, as far as I was paying attention.

Kris Allen has the next spot, with Randy AND Kara choosing "Apologize" by One Republic as his first song. Whatever. Interestingly he comes out self accompanying on piano. I don't think he did that when Matt Giraud and Scott MacIntyre were still around. He's got a nice little groove going with his very distinctive vocal phrasing all over it. He's a little weak on the falsetto on the high notes. But his focus remains pretty intense. This is pretty good stuff. Not as showy as Gokey. But I think it will play better over repeated listenings. The judges said some stupid stuff and argued amongst themselves.

Adam Lambert had his song chosen by Simon Cowell. Simon chose "One" by U2 for him, which sounds all kinds of interesting. He begins with an accoustic piano accompaniment and a very unplugged, emo kind of vocal. Shades of his Mad World vocal there. Starts to build in the accompaniment, while the vocals remain focused and soft. Then the lights build while he seizes the mic and Glambert emerges. Suddenly the vocal fireworks shoot into the stratosphere and he's hitting one of those impossibly high sustained notes perfectly in key. He finishes it off understated and controlled. Vintage Adam. The judges drool.

And now for the part I think will truly decide this... their own selections.

Danny Gokey leads off this segment with a rearrangement of Joe Cocker's "You Are So Beautiful." See, that's not going to be anything like the next two. But I'm getting ahead of myself. This is very well suited to Danny's voice AND what he likes to do with a song. He begins in surprisingly understated fashion, for a guy who loves to belt and growl. Somewhat distracting... the blue lighting on the head of the bald guitar accompaniest sitting to Danny's immediate left makes him look like a member of the Blue Man Group for most of the song. But outside of that this is pretty impressive. He's holding back and showing the kind of control her rarely has attempted... and it's good. Then he builds, but not too much. Surprising for him. Really nicely done. The judges go slobbery.

Kris Allen's personal choice is going to be "Heartless," by Kanye West. Bet you didn't see that coming. I sure didn't. Nor did I see the Kanye song being the one Kris would choose to arrange as a solo accoustic guitar performance. Signs are pointing to a statement of either the terrific or flameout variety. Wow. Listening to him build into it you almost immediately forget that this is supposed to be Hip-Hop. This... works. This totally works. And Kris has the audience eating from his hand. This is incredible stuff. Exactly what he needed to do. Didn't I tell you there were THREE solid contenders? Wow. Stunning. One of my favorites of the season hands down. The judges seemed stunned. In a happy way.

Adam Lambert got yet another pimp slot, closing out the show with Aerosmith's "Cryin." Aerosmith? A jab at Danny from last week? Anyway he says he's going to stay closer to the original. Wow... there's that voice that sounds like it's fronting a stadium-rock band right from the start. Oh here he goes. It's time to show off. He's singing damn near the entire song in a register that would be above the range of the other two competitors. And he doesn't miss a note. Frankly his first song was better to listen to. But this one he chose to just blow people away with his vocal talent. Job accomplished.

Wow. Great night. Don't most final threes include one or two bad performances? This one didn't. Truly. Not a one of these was bad in any serious way.

On that same note, some stood out as better than others.

Kris Allen's "Heartless" takes best of the night. But Adam Lambert's "One" is not far behind. And If I'd be lying if I didn't admit that Danny Gokey's "You Are So Beautiful" belongs in that same discussion.

After that Lambert's "Cryin" and Kris Allen's "Apologize" were in a virtual tie in my book for next in line. In comparison to all the above, I found Danny Gokey's "Dance Little Sister Dance" the weakest. But it's a very strong "weakest."

I really can't recall any other top three where all three presented themselves SO strongly... in the sense that you can't really call a single performance a poor one. Even the judges didn't find one. The worst they got was second guessing the arrangements.

So this makes it all the more difficult. I don't know who will be in the top two. But I know who deserves to be.

Adam Lambert and Kris Allen SHOULD be your finalists next week, on the basis of this week's - and the rest of the season's - performances.

Danny Gokey is really good, but those two are just better.

And I'm refusing to engage the cynical part of my mind to say anything else on the matter until after the result show.

UPDATE: The Results
Effin' yeah! America has redeemed itself for booting Allison! Rather unexpectedly the two who actually deserve to be in the finals are going to be in the finals!

Cutting to the chase, that means Danny Gokey was eliminated. The long awaited showdown between Gokey and Lambert has happened already, and somehow Kris Allen won it.

The producers had me on the edge of my seat though. With Kris already safe on the couch, about to announce who would join him in the final, my mind had me all set up to hear "Danny Gokey." But instead, after a cruel Seacrestian pause, I heard "Adam Lambert" and just about lost it.

It's been a long, long time since I thought the two most deserving the top two spots actually made it to the top two spots. That's not the same as saying the two I thought were shoo-ins to win the most votes. I mean last season everyone knew David Archuleta would be there, but I didn't think he was the second most deserving based on his performances. Carrie Underwood and Bo Bice in Season Four was probably the last time I'd apply the "deserving" label to both of the finalists.

So this sets up a much more interesting competition next week. If it was Lambert / Gokey I already knew who deserved to top vote. It would have been almost impossible for the performances to sway me. But with Kris Allen in there? Heck, I thought he was the best this week even with Adam performing quite strongly. Could happen again next week as well. It's something to look forward to.

Adam Lambert lead us off tonight. I don't think Adam ever faced a leadoff spot in the past, but with only four left it's not quite the handicap it might have been earlier. He's singing... wait, wait. A little error here. I was about to mention a Led Zeppelin song, but this is American Idol. Whitney Houston... Celine Dion... and Led Zeppelin. I guess it wasn't an error. Adam actually performed "Whole Lotta Love," from Led Zep II if I'm not mistaken. He was total Glambert with peaked blue hair, his vocals shooting into the impossible heights of his upper register in a display at once showy and seemingly effortless. A complaint I had here wasn't with Adam, but the mix was wrong, with the band actually sounding too subdued. This isn't a vocal for a diva - the guitar and drum riffs should have come in close to the same volume of the vocal. Trust me... you would have still heard Adam loud and clear. Anyway it was another Glambert extravaganza, enthusiastically received by the audience and the judges alike (though the judges were just a wee bit overstated when they called him a "rock god"). Simon Cowell proved prophetic when he quipped that the main problem with this performance was that no one would be capable of following it.

Allison Iraheta chose the Janis Joplin song, "Crybaby," for her rocker. Allison certainly can handle Joplin's power and grittiness. But it's not the kind of song I would have chosen for her. Mentor Slash thought she needed to get over her shyness in selling the song. That's usually not an Allison problem once she hits the stage no matter how shy and awkward she seems when she's off it. Anyway, maybe the advice had an effect because she game out brimming with confidence and stage presense. She quickly hit the chorus and hammered the vocals with every ounce of her freakishly strong voice. It wasn't (to counter some later judgey commenting) a straight copy of Janis' style. It was very Allison. The problem was the song gets a bit repetitive, and Allison only really interpreted the song through about that first chorus. After that it felt kinda "second verse... same as the first." Still this was a real rock vocal, and if you've liked Allison to this point she didn't bomb or anything.

And now we come to the first duet in Idol history (at least on a performance night). It's Kris Allen and Danny Gokey singing "Renegade" by Styx. I love the song choice. But for some reason both Kris and Danny have trouble with some badly off pitch notes when they begin. The harmony parts are pretty good though. Definitely the highlight of the song. The rest is a little strange. I mean... Kris and Danny have two wildly different interpretations of this song it seems. Kris has an intriguingly Tommy-Shaw-like vocal sound, but he's trying to take the song into more of an introspective, interpretive direction really focusing on the meaning in the lyrics. Danny is blowing through the notes, seizing every opportunity to make it loud and showy and passionate without much care to Kris's interpretive direction. Truth be told neither vision succeeds all that well, but the jarring disconnect between them makes it sound worse than it was. On playing it back I think either one could work, but definitely not at the same time. Good thing for those harmonies.

Kris Allen was going to sing Revolution by the Beatles. Then he changed his mind and went with "Come Together," also by the Beatles. Do you get the feeling Kris wasn't really loving his possible choices this week? He got to play Slash's guitar and jam with him, so he'll always have that. But the performance? This was about as "meh" as Kris has sounded since... forever ago. He made couple of obvious blunders, one in trying to put in an ill-placed R&B vocal riff, and another when he almost dropped the mic when he tried to "strike a rock pose." But really... where was the originality and personality we've come to expect from Kris? This was just like a half-hearted cover of the original. Double the number of contestants left and this still might be a trouble-some performance for keeping him safe from elimination. It's definitely not the kind of performance you need on top four week. Especially when the show opens AND closes with Adam Lambert (more about that in a moment).

Danny Gokey decided to openly interpret the "rock" theme, instead playing to safely to his Soul vibe by choosing... umm... "Dream On," by Aerosmith. Wait, what? That's right there was no "safe zone" choice by Danny this week. He decided to fully embrace the theme no matter how far outside his comfort zone that took him. And lordy did it ever do that. But... not at first. At first he was pulling a nice little blend of his powerful soulful voice and giving some new life to the low, chantlike opening. He lifted it nicely, if not perfectly, into the harder rocking middle, pulling out the old Danny-growl to make it sound grittier and maybe even a bit menacing. And then... flashback to Slash, speaking after mentoring Danny on the song .... Slash noted that he would either succeed or fail dramatically on the basis of that last note... flash forward again... Holy crap, he's actually going to attempt Steven Tyler's ultra-high falsetto climax! Danny Gokey! Here he goes... ooohh... he's.. not quite finding the notes maybe he can.. no.. no still not quite there. And then... Aaaaarrrrggghhh... the sound of half a dozen cats being slowly fed through a meat grinder emerges from Danny's throat at FULL volume... and he sustains it for several seconds that feel like a decade in musical purgatory. Wow. Steven Tyler was right. And that's not good news for Danny.

Closing the night with a duet are Adam Lambert and Allison Iraheta doing Foghat's "Slow Ride." Wow... way to steal the pimp slot away from Danny Gokey. He must be getting under the producers' skin in some way, because despite being an early fan favorite I don't think he's ever gotten a pimp slot. Anyway, Allison hits the stage first, and she comes out with that same stage-energy she showed earlier and blows out some great vocals. Then Adam comes strolling up from the back of the stage next to join her. And everything I said about Kris and Danny's performance being disjointed - like they weren't on the same page? The opposite is true here. Adam and Allison trade riffs back and forth, seeming to play off one another while having a blast doing it. This isn't anything deep. It's just a fun, classic power rock anthem. Adam and Allison put all the fun into it that the audience is looking for, and - even though it may just be good stage acting - they actually seem to LIKE one another. Take a note, Kris and Danny. That's just a good idea when you're performing together. Anyway the crowd goes wild. The judges go back into superlatives. And the spotlight is one hundred and ten percent stolen from Danny and Kris. Simon Cowell, no fan of Allison's earlier performance, thinks Adam might have just saved Allison from elimination with this. If so, let's not minimize Allison's part in it too.

And now for the summary. This was a ridiculously fun night for Idol. Was it the best performed Idol ever? No way. But it was original, unpredictable, and the duets were a terrific new twist. Song selection was a bit wanting for the most part, but who knows how much of that was due to contestant choice versus song availability to them.

The concept of a "bottom three" is kind of moot at this stage. I suspect we're going to get an elimination where the "top three" get called one by one. And the final two remaining are by no means certain to be the bottom two vote getters.

So let's do this a bit differently. No calling "bottom three" or even "bottom two." Here's who will be in the finals...

Adam Lambert (it's a lock)
Allison Iraheta (she earned it with that final duet)
Danny Gokey (too popular for even that torturous last note to kill)

And that means.... Kris Allen will be going home, just short of the finals.

Of course... top four week is the traditional week for Idol's most shocking eliminations. Tamyra Gray... Latoya London... Chris Daughtry... If that pattern is repeated here, look for Danny Gokey's shocking elimination. I'm pretty skeptical it will happen, but frankly I'd prefer Kris Allen to Danny Gokey in the finals myself.

UPDATE: The Results

Sorry for the long delay in updating. I was so overwhelmed by the sense of injustice instilled by this week's elimination it left me lifeless and listless... a mere husk where once a living, breathing person existed. See what you can do to a person, America?! Vote responsibly, for gosh sake, and this shouldn't happen again.

Long story short, my girl Allison will not be in the final three. The Idol producers teased us till the very end, with the tantalizing notion that it might... might... be Danny Gokey leaving. That would have put my ideal top three into the finals. But alas... it was not to be.

So next week we have the Gokester, Kris "thank God for my adorable smile" Allen, and Adam "the eventual winner" Lambert. They're singing two songs apiece, because lord knows the judges would never shut up in time to squeeze in three. Hopefully that means the performance times will be longer than otherwise. One song is the usually awful "judges choice," and the other is whatever they feel like singing. Should be quite the study in contrasts. Also we have the big "going home" celebrations. See you then.

Kris Allen leads us off with "The Way You Look Tonight," (which will never be better than Frank Sinatra's version but I'll give him a pass and take it for what it is). I kind of like the way Kris has adapted his acoustic-poppy style to this genre. It's catchy. You can snap your fingers to it. Just kidding. He's actually going very ballady here, which is an interesting change up from his recent performances. You know what? He works it out pretty nicely. Nicely indeed. Oh, and then he picks up the tempo, but it's hardly acoustic... it's big band all the way. And he handles it seemlessly. Dude is auditioning for Tommy Dorsey all of a sudden. And you know what? He gets the part. This was well put together. Just enough of Allen's personality delivered alongside a vocal that was dangerously traditional, given Kris' previous strengths.

Allison Iraheta has the next spot, choosing "Someone to Watch Over Me." Most of America, myself included, thought the rocker girl might struggle with this theme. But the more I thought about it, the more I thought this was really a huge opportunity for her. She has a fantastic voice, and broken out of the rocker genre maybe some more people would notice. And as this begins... well it's right in that opportunistic wheelhouse. She sounds fantastic. All that rocky-gritty edge is channeled into raw emotion in the delivery of this. And it sounds sensational. She's all grown up in her vocals regardless of her actual age. It doesn't sound affected or immitative at all... this is what you call making a song your own. Terrific.

Matt Giraud next sings “My Funny Valentine,” recalling either Contantine Maroulis, or Melinda Doolittle, which bodes ill for Matt. I don't think his personality compares to the former, and his voice isn't in the ballpark of the latter. He starts and is... actually a little weak and wandery. He finds his groove eventually, but that pitch just wants to wander at times even then. He makes some ambitious choices to style it into something more familiar to him, and those actually work better this week. But those notes remain frustratingly one hair past his reach at times. And compared to the prior two performances, the emotion and passion just aren't delivered at the same level. Simon Cowell can say the opposite all night. Watch the votes tomorrow.

Danny Gokey gets the penultimate performance of the night with “Come Rain Come Shine.” I've been sour on Danny in recent weeks as he's been boring me, and I'm hoping he finally picks it up this evening. There's some solo trombonist leading him in, which is kind of weird but not his fault. And then... Hmm... Hmmmmmmm... I like this version of Danny. No I LIKE this version of Danny Gokey. Tonight there's some extra level of fire to his emotion, and intimacy to his phrasing. This doesn't sound like the pre-packaged vocals he's been mailing in the past few weeks. This sounds GOOD. He's unexpectedly using his Power Soul for good, rather than giving into the Dark Side. Best he has sounded in... maybe forever.

Adam Lambert gets the night's pimp slot to deliver "Feeling Good." The only danger to Adam tonight is that he might choose to dash our expectations TOO much, to surprise us. But as the performance opens with Adam descending a red lit staircase in a dazzling white suit, that fear goes out the window. It's like the opening number of the Lambert Show at the Sands. Lord does this guy have the theatrical presense down pat. Honestly the vocal, for him, is just okay. It would be stunning to hear Giraud deliver something like this, but for Adam he shows us nothing new. Still... the stage presense alone commands like almost no others tonight. And the vocals, while not his top, are nothing to sneeze at. Solid for Adam, which this was, would be a breakout performance for any other contestant.

And so we come to the summary. The judges comments were better than I feared, though Simon's were oddly awful (He loved Giraud?! He thought Allison and Kris were lacking in desire?! ). Still, not worth much mention, so I mostly skipped it above.

Matt Giraud is going home, folks. Sorry I didn't go through the proper rigamarole before dropping that bomb, but it's true. He sang nicely for a top ten performance, but not nicely enough to make the top four. And I just can't believe the nation which made him the bottom vote getter two weeks ago was so enamoured of that performance they're voting for him in droves.

As for the rest... Tops of the night to.... Danny Gokey. I know! I didn't expect it either.

Adam, Allison, and Kris were all so good I don't even want to order them. Allison is likeliest to join Matt at the bottom, but that's due to performance-independent popularity.

So that's my call... Matt Giraud goes home. Allison joins him at the bottom two. Let's see Dial Idol put that kind of precision on the line. Ha!

UPDATE: The Results

The results show entertainment in brief...

Nice medley of “It Don’t Mean a Thing” and “I Got Rhythm,” not lip-synched for a change, by the Idolateers. Natalie Cole is still trading on her daddy's name even though she's not close to his league as a singer. Taylor Hicks and the Soul Patrol are sounding fine, but he still moves like he has some kind of spastic disorder. Jamie Foxx sings like an early version Cylon, which is the sound America is demanding at the moment apparently. And now for the results...

They jerk us around a bit by doing to "come down to the left side" "come down to the right side" thing. We find, stunningly, that Gokey and Iraheta are safe. Adam, Kris, and Matt are the bottom three. Okay... I can see it. And freakin' yay for Allison hanging around. Love her. Plus even I thought Gokey was stellar last night.

So we get jerked around a bit more before Kris is sent to saftey, and here I make careful note that they did not say Adam and Matt were the bottom two vote getters. Only that one of them is going home, and Kris is safe. That could mean Kris and Matt got the least votes, but it's way more dramatic if they make it look like season front-runner Adam is in danger.

Anyway we discover that... Matt Giraud is going home. Which wasn't all that big a surprise to me, as I called it last night. Nor to Dial Idol, who smartly saw him placing somewhere from first to last place. And they were right about that! So they get one of these: And I get another one of these:

Next week the theme is Rock. The mentor is Slash. We have the right final four. And Adam could get very, very frightening indeed. Should be awesome. See you then.

Lil Rounds: Lil's voice is well suited to a lot of popular female artists of the day. But Lil has shown a stubborn insistence on ignoring all such opportunities and picking something that's just awful for her for some time. Bad song choice plus disco could spell the end of her this season. And she goes with... "I'm Every Woman," by Chaka Khan. Wow, she suddenly thinks she's going to save herself by going all Lakisha. None of us have much of a clue who Lil really is, and this doesn't help. She sings it competently, but it's hardly going to blow us away. Other Idols have done this one much, much better in prior seasons. It's not awful. But once again Lil insists on putting her limitations on display more than her talents. And it's in the leadoff spot too. Not good. The judges have been over her for a while now, and basically let her know they just want to be friends from now on.

Kris Allen: Kris' style doesn't seem like it would easily adapt to Disco. Fortunately, Kris has probably shown the second most skill at re-arranging songs this year (after Adam). I'm hoping he doesn't just go for a straight up cover arrangement and puts some distance between himself and some less talented others. The song is “She Works Hard For the Money” by Donna Summer. And I'm already praying to my television that it won't be as awful as that idea sounds. And then... aww why did I worry? This is fantastic! It sounds nothing like the original, nothing like Disco, totally like Kris, and totally terrific. He made it into an acoustic, rhythmic, Santana-ish kind of really nice thing. Perhaps his best performance of the whole season. The judges are all into some Kris tonight as well.

Danny Gokey: Well this one is a mystery to me. Mr. "Power Soul" is faced with an era where the power was in the synthesized drum track, and the soul was just about wrung out of the entire music industry. Perhaps we'll finally see Danny do something interesting and original with an arrangement? If not this could be trouble. He chooses to perform “September,” by Earth, Wind, & Fire. Hmm... it's got some potential. He's got the patented Danny Growl under control tonight, and is working the stage in an unusually bouncy manner. Alright, truth be told, I'm growing bored with this act about the same way David Archuleta was boring me this time last season. Yes, I see and appreciate the talent. But I'm starting to know exactly what he's going to sound like on any given song every week. I'm not denying the talent. But it's been a long time since Danny's performance really woke me up and surprised me. The judges kind of gave their blah-blah yay-Danny comments, with Simon providing a cautionary "boring" warning.

Allison Iraheta: By the time Allison was born, Disco had been mouldering in its funky grave for more than a decade. And when Allison listens to some examples this week she's going to find out why she would have struggled in the Disco era, as her harder rocking female vocal style was confined to the punk fringes at the time. Could be a challenge for her. The song choice is “Hot Stuff” by Donna Summer. Wow, they have really rocked up the arrangement. This is how Pat Benatar would have done this song, I think. And that's about as "rock" as you can make a Disco song I suppose. The judges were kind of right on here. The arrangement tried, but failed. It was kind of awful. But how could you not love Allison all the same? Her vocals shone through, and this was soooo not her theme. No one will remember this as one of her best, but if they look back they won't forget her talent either.

Adam Lambert: Adam could suffer a bit from high expectations here. The glammest Idolateer ever is definitely expected to be comfortable with this theme. I'm expecting one of his big showy theatrical performances, but actually think this would be a terrific opportunity to pull it back into another Ulplugged kind of arrangement as a surprise. Let's see. He chooses “If I Can’t Have You,” from Saturday Night Fever. That's not a tell, as it could still go either way. And then... Oh wow. He's made it a ballad. And not just any ballad, this is like a stadium rock anthem. This thing could, and probably will, be played at proms and weddings and all the other places where one once heard "Sister Christian" in the 80's. Once again Adam zigged where he was expected to zag and made it wonderful and surprising at the same time. The judges basically say he's the best thing in the competition without actually putting it in so many words.

Matt Giraud: The most saved contestant in Idol history (wild card save, plus newly minted judgy save) is trying to dig his way out of a hole this week. He was the lowest vote getter a week ago, and has to beat at least two others this week to go home. Everytime Matt tries to pull the slightest original move he gets beat up by the judges, and doing Disco straight up would be just awful for him. Good luck to Matt. He goes with “Stayin’ Alive” by the Bee Gees. And... it's basically Disco with R & B riffs shoved in a couple of places. Umm... it's uncomfortable to watch, but... actually given what he's trying to do with it, he's not doing too badly. I'm just not sure he should have tried to do it. But I don't think he had many options now, as I noted above. Anyway... judges were mixed, but seemed to be tilting against him.

Anoop Desai: I'm calling this one in advance - disaster of the night! It's not necessarily fair, as Anoop has actually performed pretty well the past couple of weeks and hit the bottom three all the same. But I think the magic ends here, as Anoop gets caught in one of his "show them more up-tempo" moments, which would likely crash and burn. The song choice is “Dim All the Lights” by Donna Summer. And umm... it's Michael Bolton again. I mean... in both the good and the bad sense of being Michael Bolton. He hits all the notes. He shows some skill. But I mean... who buys this kind of song anymore? It's adult contemporary, and about as edgy as Liberace donning a daringly red jacket. It is not the train wreck I predicted, but if he thinks this made him safe this week, he's nuts.

So let's get to the summary.

We have a real battle for best of the night this week. You could make a strong case for Kris Allen. You could make a strong case for Adam Lambert. Some, no doubt, will make a case for Danny Gokey, but they're just wrong.

As for me I'm picking Kris Allen as the week's best. His was just that much more original and interesting and his adaptation played so much to Kris' strengths. Adam is a very close second.

It's hard to even name a middle this week with so few left. But if they still name a bottom three this week, I suppose two names won't be in it. I'm thinking those names are Danny Gokey (yawn) and Allison Iraheta (please!!!). It's not really due to any great feat on either of their part though. It's just, as I noted earlier in the season, when it comes to raw talent these two are simply in a higher tier than the other remaining contestants.

And that would mean the bottom three, from which two will be going, are once again Matt Giraud, Lil Rounds, and Anoop Desai. And really more than anything it's just their time. Best wishes to them and all, but I honestly don't want to see a single one of them continue past the other four named above.

But going home this week I'm calling... Lil and Anoop. Matt's mystical salvation skills preserve him for one more week, but Lil and Anoop will go home.

We'll see if that's right tomorrow night.

UPDATE: The Results

And in tonight's episode of geriatric theater we're going to bring you a bevy of sagging seniors from the Disco era! You thought they looked pretty good 30 years ago... so we'll just assume nothing has changed now! Cue the spotlights!

Sheesh, was that ever uncomfortable. Were they just trying to make all the former David Cook backers into David Archuleta fans? I know I was mightily relieved when Archie's musical act came on after the tragic "Disco medley," brought to you by Centrum Silver.

Oh, also, two contestants were eliminated tonight. And one of them was Lil Rounds. Bet you thought I wasn't going to drop that info so early, did you? Just borrowing from the show's format.

And then, blah blah, the others at risk of going home are Anoop Desai and Allison Iraheta. Yes, America, you actually like Matt Giraud and Danny Gokey better than Allison Iraheta. You have a problem, and we need to talk. But that's for later.

For tonight we're made to wait before finding out... Anoop is going home. No offense to the Noop Dawg but, whew!

I think Lil and Anoop have very similar stories. They both sing really well, but neither one is likely to be a recording artist. They're good. They didn't embarrass themselves by their overall performance on the show. It was just time for them to go. The rest are just... better.

We're still waiting to hear the theme for next week. But with only five remaining we're getting close to the end. I see Adam as the current front-runner, with Gokey close behind, and Kris Allen moving up as the possible dark horse. If Allison or Matt have a prayer at winning this theme, everything from now on has to be a level above anything they've delivered so far.

See you next week.

Danny Gokey lead us off tonight, singing “Stand by Me” by Ben E. King, but it counts for 1980 because Mickey Gilley released a version that year apparently. Not that Danny is going to be doing Mickey Gilley's arrangement, but to be fair he doesn't do Ben E. King's either. Instead he does a kind of jazzed up arrangement that might well have been cut from the final edit of The Commitments. It was good. Danny's voice was strong and this song was squarely within the best part of his range. If you like the Danny-growl, you got a little Danny-growl here. If you don't like it, there wasn't so much it should have ruined the song for you. The judges all ripped on the arrangement, except Paula. But they all liked the vocal performance.

Kris Allen brought back his guitar with an arrangement of “All She Wants to Do is Dance” by Don Henley from the year 1985. Kris was in the mosh pit surrounded by crazy Idol fan girls, who definitely seemed to prefer Kris to Matt Giraud who could barely hold their attention performing in similar style last week. Kris really changed this a lot to take it from the synth-heavy original to something he could perform on an accoustic guitar but I actually thought it worked alright. It wasn't Kris' best by any means, but it was pretty solid. The judges umm... strongly disagreed with me. They hated the arrangement but... I am NOT going to allow that any version of THIS song is "too iconic" to change. It's an alright song but it's hardly Hotel California. Boo to the judges for suggesting otherwise.

Lil Rounds went in a Tina Turner (the revival years) direction for the year 1984 with "What’s Love Got to Do With It.” And while we can all breathe a sigh of relief that Lil avoided something obvious, like the Pointer Sisters' "I'm So Excited," maybe she should have chosen a bit more carefully because... ouch. This was Lil's worst performance of the whole competition. She didn't change the arrangement from the original at all, and seemed to be trying to imitate Tina Turner in other ways too. But the biggest problem was her voice which suffered pretty serious pitch problems through the entire first half of the song. By the end she had it back in control better, but there was nothing exciting enough in there to make you forget her struggles. More worrying for Lil, for the first time the judges turned against her, ripping her song choice, her arrangement, her voice, and questioning the entire notion that she could ever be a real recording artist.

Anoop Desai followed this with “True Colors” by Cyndi Lauper, from 1986. Only first he had to explain to America that he didn't mean to come across as an arrogant a** last week by snapping back at Kara. Too late Anoop. Anyway, weird song choice, I thought. But Anoop took it back into his "soul ballad" direction which he does very well. In doing so he turned in another really strong vocal performance and making the audience wonder why the judges kept telling him to get away from this style earlier in the competition. If there is a criticism to be made here it's that this style is a little Michael Boltonish, and "adult contemporary" is probably not the hot youth-oriented market Idol likes to aim for. But anyway, all was forgiven for last week by the judges, who praised this one nicely.

Scott MacIntyre was born in 1985 just like the song “The Search is Over” by Survivor. So it was only natural that one day they would meet and wrestle for dominance. Also, hey you know how Paula advised Scott to get up and leave the piano in some future performance? Well this was the night, with Scott strumming an electric guitar (sadly not very well) and standing at a microphone. Of course Paula is usually stoned, and so therefore this predictably didn't work all that well for Scott. On the positive side this might be the best Scott has sounded vocally so far. He actually tried some new things in a couple of places to change up the "Keep The Faith" sounds like "Wild Angels" sounds like "You Can't Hurry Love" sounds like "Just The Way You Are" rut. Unfortunately everywhere else in the song was squarely in that same rut. Will Scott ever sing a song that doesn't sound like it comes off the exact same Christian rock album? The judges didn't like this one very much, but they gushed all over last week's snoozer from him so maybe this is just karma.

Allison Iraheta, who was born right around the last time you got your oil changed (actually 1992, but she's a young'un, is my point), sang “I Can’t Make You Love Me” by Bonnie Raitt. The arrangement was more or less the original but if anything Allison sounded better than Bonnie Raitt doing this song. Those who earlier tried to characterize Allison as another Amanda Overmyer - meaning she could sing rockers really loudly, but wasn't versatile enough to handle much else - have already been proven wrong. But this should end all such notions for good, as she delivered this one with restraint and emotion, delivering power only when it truly fit the song. The judges were a little blown away by a sixteen year old delivering such an authentic interpretation of such mature lyrics, but had to admit she did it very well. But I kind of get where Simon Cowell is coming from about Allison needing to be more likable. It's not that she's got some obvious personality flaw. It's that she keeps hitting the bottom three when her performances don't deserve to put her there.

Matt Giraud and his box were born in 1985, so of course he chose to sing "Like a Virgin," by Madonna. Kidding! He sang “Part Time Lover” by Stevie Wonder delivered exactly like the judges demand of him. He left the piano behind this week to work the audience with his hat, apparently. This is a pretty challenging song vocally, and many a previous Idolateer would have been destroyed by it. But Matt, in his box, is a pretty capable singer and turned in one of his best vocals of the season. The way the show was running over by this point, this is probably the last performance people watching the show by DVR likely saw. If so, Matt rocked the faux-pimp spot very well and likely extended his run for at least another week.

Adam Lambert was the only one to make a truly interesting song choice for the night (big surprise). He was born in 1982, and went with “Mad World” by Tears for Fears. Adam is the first Idolateer of the season to get the pimp slot for a second time, unofficially making him the producer's chosen one, at least for now. If Danny Gokey gets it next week, you know the showdown is ON! Anyway, Adam began this one sitting on a chair in the middle of the stage with dazzlingly bright blue backlighting. The vocal was soft and emotive, but building, delivered near the top of Adam's impossibly broad range. For those of you who are calling it "falsetto," it mostly was not. His range actually goes that high. Scary. Anyway Adam poured his emotion into this one while resisting the urge to take it in any over-the-top direction. The result was stunningly powerful - at once haunting, tender, and soul-grabbingly assertive. Because they were running over time, only Simon got to speak afterward and he... gave Adam a standing ovation. Simon. A standing ovation. I don't think he has ever done that before in any season. Wow.

In my opinion this is going to be a really tough week for the eliminations. I can make a pretty strong case that two contestants belong in the bottom three, but I'd be pretty surprised to see the voting follow along so cleanly. And all the rest of the contestants turned in the kind of performances that, if not uniformly among their strongest, certainly don't deserve to send them home.

So anyway, let's try to sort this out regardless and get ready to be surprised by the results.

Tops of the night for me was definitely Adam Lambert, who continues to show the ability to surprise and dazzle and seems to be gaining momentum as others wear down.

I think Allison Iraheta deserves an honorable mention for turning in a pretty fantastic performance of her own, even as I continue to worry she might land in the bottom three again anyway.

Making up a very strong middle of the pack this week in my mind are Danny Gokey, Kris Allen, Anoop Desai, and Matt Giraud.

And that leaves, again in my opinion, only a bottom two rather than a bottom three: Lil Rounds and Scott MacIntyre. They suffer from opposite problems. Lil can't seem to find a distinctive voice, and Scott has found one and hits it every week, but it's become boring and limited. Lil seems to be maintaining popularity even as she has fallen out of the judges' favor, but I think it's finally going to catch up to her this week, and she will land in the bottom three. Scott may or may not. I kind of think he will, and can't think of another more likely to land there to replace him.

However that leaves one more spot that can only be filled by someone who probably doesn't deserve to be there. Heck, it could be Allison again, which would be a very bad and very unfair thing. We know it won't be Danny Gokey. I seriously doubt it's going to be Kris Allen. And that leaves Anoop or Matt. Of the two I have to think... it will be Anoop. He soured his public image last week by coming across as arrogant, and his little apology this week isn't enough to recover.

So if the bottom three are Lil, Scott, and Anoop, who will go home? Tough call. Did Anoop screw up his popularity badly enough to go home even following a good performance? Is the judges' dismissal of Lil enough for her fan support to drop so far so fast? Is America really ready to be mean to a likable blind guy?

Hmm... Since every season contains at least one "shocker" elimination around this time of the competition, I'm calling for Lil to go home. But I'm not putting a heck of a lot of confidence into that prediction. We'll see tonight.

UPDATE:

I never look at the Dial Idol results until I'm finished making my own predictions. But I guess I'm not the only one who sees a very unpredictable result coming tonight. They have Adam Lambert finishing in either the first or the second highest spot. After that every contestant has a chance of being the lowest vote getter. According to them, Danny could finish anywhere from first to last. And all the rest could finish anywhere from second to last. Could be a wild elimination night.

UPDATE 2: The Results

So level with me... This whole Flo Rida deal about being the number one song... that was a joke, right? I mean, it would be like Vanilla Ice started a whole popular genre which is only now being appreciated. So it was a comedy bit, right?

Anyway the show results went blah, blah, blah.. The bottom three are Anoop, Scott, and Lil. Wow! I called that one correctly.

But Lil was quickly sent to safety, so it would be no "shocker" elimination this week.

Between Scott and Anoop it's... Scott MacIntyre going home. So I guess we found out just how high sympathy for your disability can take you... and it's not into the finals on Idol.

The judges put a whole lot of time into pretending they might save him which is, again, more cruel than kind. It's like a cat toying with a mouse when Simon can veto the whole thing. And there's no way he's saving Scott. And of course he doesn't.

Next week is the top seven and an as-yet-unannounced theme. I'm betting it's not 80's songs. More likely we have some aging celebrity mentor with a revival album coming out. I don't think Neil Young has sold out that much yet, but we'll see.

Anoop Desai lead us off with “Caught Up” by Usher. Anoop had this idea that he needed to go back to one of his earlier performance styles, because apparently he doesn't watch the show and doesn't realize it was only the last two weeks that resurrected his chances of staying around a bit longer. Anoop tried to strut around the stage like a hip-hop homeboy, which umm... didn't work. His voice sounded alright, but the song really didn't lend itself to anything too memorable. That was really the overall impression, which is especially dangerous in the lead off spot - forgettable. The judges kind of said so, as far as I care to remember. And then Anoop took a nasty little parting shot at them, stating that he disagreed with the judges while making himself sound like a spoiled ass. Not a great idea for a guy who's been cruising on likability at least as much as singing talent.

Megan "Chikeze" Joy sang Bob Marley/Lauren Hill's "Turn Your Lights Down Low." Megan, Megan, Megan. Where to begin? When I heard "Bob Marley" I was thinking "train wreck." But this must have been closer to the Lauren Hill version which was a relief because I never want to hear Megan doing Reggae - ever. Which is not to say this alternative was great, but it was better than she's sounded the past couple of weeks. I was once again left with the impression that she needs to front a band rather than make a shot as a solo artist. I do like her quirky singing voice, but not shown off like that. So the judges went blah, blah about song choice again, but I think the problem is deeper than that.

Danny Gokey followed that with "What Hurts the Most" by Rascal Flatts. This was not Danny going country or anything, as he explained Rascal Flatts is kind of non-country country music. Which doesn't make any sense except that it's true. Okay here's where that stratification thing showed up first tonight. This performance didn't even sound like it belonged in the same show as the ones preceding it. And not so much because it was so amazing, even though the judges seemed to think it was. It's just... the basic quality of the singing and the arrangement and the song selection and whatever else made this sound like real popular music, while the others were more like a highly produced amateur talent show. So anyway, it was good but not great. It gave Danny plenty of chances to show off his growly soulful riffing chops, which he handled pretty effortlessly. It sounded great mostly because it was the first performance of the "top strata" tonight.

Allison Iraheta next sang "Don't Speak" by No Doubt. She decided to play the guitar for this one, which I don't think any of us knew she could do. And while I don't want to underrate the difficulty, she really only played the first few bars of the song before leaving the guitar aside so I don't think it made much difference. The judges were very, very distracted by Allison's "shades of Cyndi Lauper" outfit. So much so they didn't really even talk about her singing. The singing was really good though. We're kind of getting past the "wow, she's only 16" factor now, and still the vocals are holding their own in this competition. Like I mentioned earlier, some of these you just expect to sound like a real recording artist at this point, and she does. It wasn't my favorite Allison performance, but it was plenty solid.

Scott Macintyre came next with Billy Joel's "Just The Way You Are," dropping us back into that lower tier. This is another one of those performances I'm thinking there's some kind of mass hysteria around because people - judges included - were fawning all over this like it was something incredibly good. I thought it was kind of boring, that it sounded more or less like Scott always sounds, that the arrangement was competent but not much of a break from the original - and for that matter it was noticeably inferior to the original. But then craziness broke out. Maybe they're sorry that America put a likable blind guy... sorry... challenged guy (thanks for cluing me in to the proper term Paula) into the bottom three last week and they're overcompensating? Eh. The reaction to the song more than the performance might keep Scott from the bottom three this week.

Matt Giraud decided on performing The Fray's "You Found Me." And here I get to gloat a little over calling this one early and often. Matt, more than any other singer here, has a very tightly defined box the judges want to keep him in. He's supposed to do barroom piano R&B / soul. That's all. If he tries to do anything else they're going to beat him up over it. But Matt knows he's not going to win this thing if he keeps playing the piano-bar singer role, so tonight he tried valiantly to break out of his box. And the results were predictable. The first problem was that his voice wasn't especially good tonight. The second problem was he decided to perform in some "intimate" kind of setting, surrounded by the girls in the mosh pit - who frankly looked bored. Not really their fault. It wasn't a very exciting or well known song, and wasn't sung especially well. And then Matt's beating from the judges for stepping out of his box commenced. Ouch. Not a good week for Matt.

Lil Rounds, who apparently never watches the show, told us that after a very long and difficult song selection process she decided the best way to please the judges with her song choice lead her to picking... Celine Dion's "Surrender." Celine. Whitney. Mariah. Songs from these artists ought to come with great big flashing warning letters "DO NOT USE ON AMERICAN IDOL!!!" You can count on one hand the number of Idolateers who have performed one of these songs and received a positive reaction from the judges. Almost always it ends in disaster. Did Lil think she's having one of those "magical" kind of seasons where things are falling into place wonderfully for her? And so, in a shockingly unexpected (to Lil alone) development this did not go well. It was slow and boring and pageanty. As good a singer as Lil is, she's not good enough to cover this kind of song without showing off her limitations as much as her talent. As much as the judges like her, I half wondered if she would get away with this one. But no. The Holy Diva Trinity is just too sacred. They beat Lil up only slightly less than they had beaten Matt previously, trying to build her a "Mary J. Blige" box which she hasn't shown much desire to climb into.

Adam Lambert reminded us of that tier distinction again by delivering a glammed-up arrangement of Wild Cherry's "Play That Funky Music." Last week Adam won a lot of new fans by showing an understated, soft, unplugged arrangement. This week Glambert was back with a passion, and in my book that's a good thing. Adam has already established himself as the contestant from whom you'll get wild creativity and showmanship always verging on excess. After Lil's dreary attempt at Celine this came across like a thunderbolt, showing off energy, crazy vocals, and a lot of fun. Really there is no other contestant like him, and while he's not going to win everyone over with his shrieky Steven Tyler-esque stylings, does anyone want this season to go on without him? No, this wasn't his best. But much like Allison, he's set a really high level of performance quality and never falls very short of it. A "solid" effort from Adam would be far and away the season's best for many of the others this season.

Kris Allen got his first pimp slot with "Ain't No Sunshine When She’s Gone." For some reason the judges keep trying to convince America that Matt Giraud is verging on breaking into the front-runner club when anyone following the show knows that role really belongs to Kris Allen. Once again Kris overperformed expectations, even as the expectation bar for him rises week to week. He broke out the keyboard for this one for the first time, and used it well to show off a stripped down, effective rearrangement of a well known song. Not many Idolateers would show well following one of Adam's over-the-top performances. But Kris is developing a personality and identity which holds its own nicely. I thought Simon was wrong last week to say he lacked confidence, because I think he's getting more and more confident as he goes along. But if that's all the judges found missing last week, they had literally nothing to complain about this week. It was Kris's best of the season, and probably the night's best from anyone. Terrific use of the pimp spot for Kris.

And so we're left with or final impressions. Mine is that these tiers are getting really clear. And here's where they are in my mind...

The top tier of the competition - and of the night - holds Danny Gokey, Allison Iraheta, Adam Lambert, and Kris Allen.

The bottom tier includes Anoop Desai, Megan Joy, Scott MacIntyre, Matt Giraud, and - somewhat surprisingly - Lil Rounds.

That's not to say no one in the bottom tier ever has a great performance or a great night. But as the weeks build it's becoming harder to take anyone in the bottom tier as seriously as a potential winner - and even more as a successful recording artist - compared to anyone in the top tier.

Anyway, tops of the night goes to Kris Allen, who solidified himself as a legitimate contender with an exclamation point. We'll give Gokey, Lambert, and Iraheta a tie for second because they were all solid efforts largely distinguished by which style their respective fans prefer, as they're nothing alike one another.

As for the other group... It should not be a shocker to see Lil Rounds hit the bottom three group for the first time, but I don't expect it. Scott MacIntyre was probably saved by the over the top praise for a performance which should otherwise put him in bottom three consideration. Bottom of the night overall was once again Megan Joy, though she seems to be protected by the "prettiest girl remaining" vote, which shows up every season (even though the last time the prettiest girl truly belonged among the best was Carrie Underwood in Season Four). But surely her poor performances have to put her there at some point. I'm thinking this week is that point. Joining her in the bottom three, I'm expecting to see Anoop Desai and Matt Giraud.

As for who goes home? It's a prediction I think I'm going to keep making until it comes true: Megan Joy. The fact that she didn't even hit the bottom three last week probably hurts her, as it might make those who like her feel undeservedly complacent in their voting. We'll see if that's true tonight.

UPDATE: The Results

Apparently I need to tell some of you to pay VERY close attention to Seacrest's words in these eliminations. The shows are produced to make one think safe contestants might be in the bottom three all the time. Whenever Seacrest DOESN'T explicitly tell you someone IS in the bottom three, you must assume that person is not. SOOO much of the banter in these shows is to play that out.

Anyway, bottom three:

Megan, (right), Anoop (right), and Allison (I hate you, America).

Allison, who should have never been in danger, is safe.

Both of the remaining have reason to go. But it's Megan leaving us tonight.

Thankfully they don't even pretend the judges might be thinking about saving her, because that bit has been lame and obviously wouldn't apply to Megan.

Next week is "songs from the year they were born." Which sounds like 80's week plus Allison to me.

Matt Giraud sang “Let’s Get it On,” by Marvin Gaye. (Nice lead in from the jump quote, eh?) Holy crap I actually like Matt Giraud this week, and not in that "he's delivering a solid performance" kind of way. I mean I actually liked this and wanted to hear it again. It wasn't that far off the original, but it wasn't a copycat either. Matt actually did pick up his vocals this week to the extent the judges praised him for (incorrectly) last week. Are they psychic? That said, I continue to feel Matt is being set up for a terrible judge betrayal. He's getting better and better... in his box. When he tries to leave it - and the judges will eventually insist he must or they will start calling him boring and predictable - they will destroy him. /Cassandra. A very good week for Matt.

Kris Allen followed with “How Sweet it Is,” by Marvin Gaye. You know what's great about Kris? Just about everything that feels somehow lacking in Matt Giraud is what Kris has tons of. Whatever you might call it. I'll try to describe it... where Matt sounds well rehearsed, Kris sounds spontaneous. Where Matt sounds like he's overthinking, Kris sounds natural and relaxed. Where Matt seems like he's grasping desperately to display the right emotion, Kris seems like he's sincerely feeling it. You might have noticed, my assessment of Kris is on the rise. I'm just starting to plain like him. He sang this simple melody simply accompanied by his guitar but dressed it up just enough to sound skilled without sounding showy. Nice mix. On the first listen I thought Matt Giraud was slightly better. On the second listen I had to flip that around. That's a mini story of Kris Allen this season... he wears better and better over time.

Scott MacIntyre hit the baby grand once more to deliver ”You Can’t Hurry Love” by The Supremes. Meh. Sometimes the Internet masses are right. This is one of those cases. Scott is proving he sings pretty much the same thing over and over. And it's getting pretty boring. Yes, the tempo was picked up this time, but that only proved it wasn't the tempo that was the problem previously. Scott's now skating by on that vaunted "this is probably better than the worst of the night" vibe, combined with "he's a likable blind guy" sympathy. It's a heady mix and likely to buy him at least another week.

Megan "Chikeze" Joy hit the night's fourth spot with “For Once in My Life” by Stevie Wonder. Wow this was... interesting. And by interesting I mean painful to watch. And by watch I mean listen to. Since most of the judges danced around it in the name of calling it awful for all kinds of other reasons, may I just point out that the most glaring failure here was that she kept not hitting the right notes? That's not a style thing. That's not a song choice thing. That's not an outfit thing. That's not hitting the freaking notes! Ahem... so there. At times this verged on the kind of over-the-top parody you might find on a Saturday Night Live episode making fun of American Idol. Off night for Miss Caw *Cough*

Anoop Desai next sang “Ooh Baby Baby” by - Smokey Robinson and The Miracles. It started out kind of... kind of.... ZZZZZzzzzz.... Huh?! What?! Oh... right! It started off REALLY slow... Sleepy slow. Boring slow. The good news was, Anoop decided to show off his truly skilled vocals which got things a bit more interesting about midway through. After listening to the previous couple of performances this came across pretty well. Anoop is surely popular enough to keep hanging around based on that. But it's not a championship winning kind of performance either. But I guess that'll do, pig.

Michael Sarver followed with “Ain’t Too Proud to Beg” by The Temptations. I had high hopes for Michael this week. He's been an R & B singer trapped in bad themes with bad edits to make him seem like a country singer for a while. This could have been a nice breakout for him. Blame if on his illness earlier in the week if you must, but this just sucked. Really and truly. If Megan was able to hit more of her notes, even she would have been better than this. It's a close call still. This is totally not the kind of singer Michael has shown he could be. Look, if you're doing Ain't Too Proud to Beg - a song everybody knows, and everyone has heard David Ruffin kill with on The Temptations recording - you can't just amble around the stage glad-handing the audience and NOT bring a great vocal. This was bad Michael. This was country Michael doing Motown. This was a Michael who shouldn't even be in the top ten.

Lil Rounds got all throwback tributey with “Heatwave” by Martha and the Vandellas. This is the second week in a row Lil decided to go "all in" on the theme. It didn't work so well for her last week. I thought it went a little better for her this week, but the judges ripped it perhaps even more fiercely. Word to the judges: this is not Fantasia. I made that mistake at first too, but I got over it. Lil does not have a fiecely original voice struggling to be heard. She's just a darn good singer, and the only one left this season of the ever-popular black female gospel/soul type. Lil delivered this really well. Yeah... you can easily imagine other and better things she might have done. That doesn't make this a bad performance. Which it wasn't. I kind of enjoyed it for what it was.

Adam Lambert chose “Tracks of my Tears” by Smokey Robinson and the Miracles. They made it seem like a big deal that Adam was going "unplugged." That's not a surprise to me. Adam doing what you expect him to do would be the surprise. Plus, I took a sneak peak at some YouTube videos of Adam performing at a club in LA earlier this week that were strikingly similar to this. Still... for most of America this was lilkely a shocking change of direction for him. And it showed that, yes, he has amazing range and amazing skill but he also can restrain it and deliver a soft and understated vocal with just as much power of its own sort. Plus it just sounded damn good. Smokey Robinson, who wrote it, was left with tears in his eyes (they looked like the happy kind, especially considering the accompanying standing ovation) when this was done. Best of the night.

Danny Gokey mixed it up next with “Get Ready” by The Temptations. Word to Michael Sarver - this was the kind of vocal you were supposed to bring. The second classic Temptations song of the night sounded little like the first, as Gokey's voice handled this with ease. There seems to be a split reaction about Gokey's shall we say... enthusiastic... stage presense. Some think he dances around like an idiot. Others find it kind of likable and charming. On this performance I lean more toward the latter. It's a song with a whole lot of energy from start to finish, and Danny just seemed to get caught up in it very plausibly. The judges felt compelled to bring it down a bit, but kind of unnecessarily to me. It was a solidly good vocal, even if there were some better tonight.

Allison Iraheta got the pimp slot, hammering us home with “Papa was a Rolling Stone” by The Temptations. The first thing that came to mind when I heard this was David "the other other David" Hernandez doing this song so well last season. And a quick internet search after quickly made me realize why. They not only the same musical arrangement for the opening, but they used the same lighting. Sheesh. Anyway Allison continues to amaze. It was her first time in the pimp slot and she took full advantage delivering a scathingly hot vocal, at times sounding emotionally raw and others mature and controlled well beyond her years. Right now she sounds like the best sixteen year old singer in Idol history, hands down. Look out Lil Rounds. You might not be the last woman standing in this competition at Allison's current pace.

Alright, so to wrap up the night... Not nearly as surprising as I expected, but not bad at all. With only a couple of exceptions we heard some pretty good music. Smokey Robinson turned out to be the kind of "coach" who loves everyone and everything, so not a lot there. But the performances themselves were varied, mostly good, and told us a lot more about the Idolateers.

Best of the night probably has to go once again to Adam Lambert, who liekly gained himself a lot of new fans in the process.

Following Adam I'd put Allison Iraheta and Kris Allen next, probably in that order, with Matt Giraud placing a close fourth.

Making up the middle of the pack tonight were solid but not exciting performances from Lil Rounds and Danny Gokey and a subdued but skilled Anoop Desai.

And that brings us to an unsurprising but well deserved bottom three: Michael Sarver, Megan "Chikeze" Joy, and Scott MacIntyre.

Of these three I would imagine Scott remains safe, as his only great crime is being boring and predictable.

Megan and Scott would seem equally vulnerable from two bad weeks in a row, this time including glaring singing mistakes going beyond anything about "song choice" or "bad theme" for them. Do either of them have a big enough fan base to cover for that, even with all the other performers doing pretty well? Maybe one of them does, but probably not both of them. I'm picking Megan to go home this week, but if it's not her it will be Michael. Any other result can be considered shocking.

UPDATE: The Results

Okay, we finally got our surprises for the week. And no, I'm not talking about Ruben Studdard losing so much weight.

First we had to suffer through perhaps the most canned lip-synched, pre-filmed Idolateer musical medley in Idol history. What was up with that? It is just so they can make it look like Scott can dance along with them even though he's blind? Might want to work out something better before the live tour this summer.

Anyway we quickly learned that Adam was safe, no surprise. And then we learned that Matt Giraud is also... no wait!!! Matt Giraud hits the bottom three, and we have our first surprise of the evening. Of course it happens on the week I finally consider him one of the top performances, so I might have jinxed things for him.

Anyway afterward Kris is safe after some Seacrest misdirection. Lil is similarly teased to believe she's hitting the bottom three but she's safe. Michael Sarver, quite unsurprisingly, joins Matt Giraud in the bottom three.

Commercial break, filler, commercial break.

Allison is safe. Anoop is safe. Danny is safe. No surprises there. It's down to Megan and Scott. And... Scott makes the bottom three. Which isn't a huge surprise. But Megan avoiding the bottom three IS a pretty big surprise.

So the bottom three are Michael Sarver, Matt Giraud, and Scott McIntyre. One can go back to safety. Obviously it's going to be Matt... and it's.... Scott! Another surprise. Perhaps Matt isn't quite the front runner the judges told him he was last night.

Anyway, as usual we sit through a commercial break, Stevie Wonder, and another commercial break before the judges pretend they're going to consider using their save based on the quality of the eliminated contestant's singout vocal. Umm... riiiiight. I have a feeling they're basing it on whether the eliminated contestant's last name is "Lambert, Gokey, or Rounds" until the very last week it's available to them.

The big announcement comes and it is... Michael Sarver on the bottom. Matt Giraud is safe.

So Michael does his sing out and *yawn* like this will matter at all. The judges pretend to be seriously deliberating until they're reminded the show is running over at which time they summarily dispatch Michael for good.

Nice run for the rough neck. But it was time for him to go.

Next week the theme is... something wonderful or awful or whatever. They ran over time and didn't announce it. I'm sure we'll catch wind of it over the course of the week. Hard to believe Megan's luck can carry her much farther no matter the theme though.

Michael Sarver lead us off, singing "Aint Going Down Till the Sun Comes Up," by Garth Brooks. Reason number one why I hated this theme: most everyone seems to be under the impression that Michael Sarver is another typical Idol "country" singer, cast to appeal to that niche. You know, like Bucky Covington or Josh Gracin. Well he's not. He's an R & B singer, and a pretty good one, if still searching for a stage personality. However he works on an oil rig in Texas. So he's already got the look. And he certainly knows country music. And so, probably thinking he's showing us a "different side" of himself, Michael dived enthusiastically into a country role, sounding like a generic Garth Brooks wannabe. It's not at all the kind of singer he wants to be, nor is it what he's best at. All it did was serve to cement the wrong impression in the minds of the Idol voters about who Michael is, and why they should care about him. So basically he sang it pretty well, for the style he chose to sing it in. But I think he did himself no favors by it.

Oh... by the way, I'm mostly ignoring the judges comments tonight because they were all over the place, leaving Paula (Paula?!!) sounding like the most reasonable one more than once. And they were either pimping or flat out wrong too many times for me to keep up with. I'll only mention them tonight if some egregious impression they left needs correcting.

Allison Iraheta followed singing "Blame It On Your Heart," by Patty Loveless. Ahem... hated this theme. Have I mentioned? I loved Allison's voice once again. Her stage presence is still terrific. She seemed more confident overall. And I kind of hated this song. Not the performance. The song. I'm sorry if this is some country classic and I'm offending Patty Loveless' mother or something. But kinda ich. The verse had too many syllables. I know it's a weird criticism but seriously... it dragged on a few beats too stupidly every time it should have jumped into the chorus. I think this is going to make Allison more forgettable than she deserved to be.

Kris Allen had the night's third spot, and you know what? This was one of those unexpected shakeups a bad theme can produce. He sang "To Make You Feel My Love” by Garth Brooks. Unlike Michael Sarver, he felt no compunction to sound like Garth Brooks. As a result he delivered a decidedly non-country sounding vocal that showed off the fact that he can really sing. He's not just a boy-band niche guy anymore. Not in my mind. Perhaps not the biggest shakeup, as he's been growing on me. But considering the standard "power ranking" order I've seen around the Idol blogs, and how low Kris seems to rate in most of them, I think this performance qualifies as a shake up. Really nice. I might have liked it a little extra for not being as explicitly "country" as the prior two performances, but I'm standing by the quality call all the same.

Lil Rounds followed, singing “Independence Day” by Martina McBride. Did I mention it was a shakeup kind of night AND that I hated this theme? You're going to grow as tired of me saying it as I was tired of thinking it before we're through. This may be the biggest example of it of the whole night. Lil, apparently under the impression that she was getting too stale after two whole performances in an R & B style, decided she wanted to "honor the music" by trying to copy a more authentic country vocal here. This despite her pre-performance interview telling us the only country songs she knew when she learned of the theme were from TV. (I was thinking "Rollin' rollin' rollin'... keep them doggies rollin' ... raw-HIIIIDE!" but there was to be no such luck.) Lil just never quite got there with this one. She didn't sound terrible or miss a lot of notes. It just felt... awkward. The best part of the song was the chorus, and all that did was remind you that Lil's big voice was intentionally trying to sound country tonight. Before this was over I was pondering whether Lil might actually be in danger this week.

Adam Lambert came next, singing... okay first we need an aside. You know what's good about Adam Lambert beyond the freaky good voice with the insane range? Adam does not care what the judges think. He's not picking songs to please them. He's not performing in a style to suit them. They're welcome to come along for the ride, but there is just no freaking way Adam, considering what he's done even to this point, gives a damn whether or not Simon will be pleased, let alone Randy, Paula, or the new one everyone forgets. Therefore on Grand Ole Opry night, Adam chose to sing a hellspawn music emerging from a decidedly unnatural blending of Johnny Cash, Robert Plant, and Ravi Shankar (crazy judging night observation: only Paula noticed the Robert Plant/Led Zep part, and that was the key to the whole performance). It's listed as Cash's "Ring of Fire," but that does not begin to describe what song Adam actually performed. I watched the entire thing with half of my mouth hanging open and the other half stuck in a stupid grin. It took me three re-watchings of the thing to even figure out whether I loved it or hated it. And you know what? It was the best performance of the night, and I'm not saying that just because I hated the theme and this was kind of a spit-on-the-theme kind of performance (okay, that might be part of it, but I swear it's not the whole thing). The combination of talent, creativity, and moxie needed to pull that off might be some kind of high water mark in Idol history. I fully realize a lot of people are going to hate this one with a passion. But this was crazy good in my opinion... just as much emphasis on the crazy as the good.

Scott MacIntyre got the lucky spot of following that with a performance about as different as it could possibly be. He sang “Wild Angels” by Martina McBride, beginning a theme of male singers singing female country songs. Starting with Scott, three of the next four guys did that. It was more annoying on principle than glaringly obvious. One does it, it might be a daring risk, or a strong personal statement. When three do it the appeal is kind of lost to the gimmickry. Anyway, Scott sounded pretty good with this one, and not very country. I do wish people would quit telling me Scott has some kind of below sensational voice while tongue-bathing Matt Giraud's bluesier-but-no-better pipes, but we'll get to that later. Scott's biggest performance problem of the night was that this one was just too similar to his last peformance. He likes the "Christian Rock Lite" sound, and tends to turn his material into that kind of thing. Could get all too boring if he can't shake it up. Oh... and just to counter one of the stupider judge arguments of the night: Scott should feel free to sing without the piano if HE ever has some particular performance idea for it. But since he's blind, he's a lot more restricted in his performance options. The piano helps him orient himself for a live audience a LOT, so unless he's got some great idea for losing it, he probably shouldn't.

Alexis Grace came out next, looking a lot more understated than the past couple of weeks, singing “Jolene” by Dolly Parton. And you know, despite the fact that Alexis Grace kind of looks like Dolly (save for the um… chestular area), the one singer I couldn’t get out of my head the whole time wasn’t Dolly. It was Brooke White who sang this song last season. Brooke’s version was really earthy, and acoustic, and sincere. And this didn’t set up Alexis very well by comparison. She said later she was trying to show a softer side of herself tonight, which is probably something I can’t blame on the theme but I’d really like to. In any case along with the loss of her up-tempo bluesy belting went eighty percent of her performance personality. She sounded mostly alright, if a bit repetitive and bland. This was easily the dullest we’ve heard Alexis Grace to date.

Danny Gokey next sang “Jesus, Take the Wheel” by Carrie Underwood. Oh joy, another male performer singing a female country song. And this one comes complete with Jesus references. Like most of America, I consider Danny one of the front runners to win this season. But I’m noticing something interesting about him that may hurt in the long run. He can sing modern and hip and please one kind of audience; or he can emphasize his church music / inspirational side and please another. And whichever way he goes, the other half tends not to like it. He’ll need to find a way to bridge that gap before long. Anyway I hate this song. Hate the stupid lyrics. That aside, Danny was lazy in his phrasing on the verses, but it wasn’t the calamity it was later made out to be. Play it back if you don’t believe me. However the power-notes at the end also weren’t as flawless as they were later claimed to be. The impression I was left with was kind of a “phone it in” performance, even though I’m pretty sure he worked on it just as hard as he has previously. He should be safe on overall talent and fan base alone at this stage, and it sort of felt like he knew it.

Anoop Desai followed with “You Were Always on My Mind” by Willie Nelson. And I was provided with yet another reason to hate this theme. Apparently when we’re revering country music we have to pretend Willie Nelson is some impeccable singer who is nearly impossible to top. Willie. Nelson. Lordy. Anyway, Anoop didn’t try to slavishly imitate Willie the way he did to Michael Jackson last week so we can be thankful for that. And then we got our little shakeup moment when Anoop quit trying to please the judges and went right back to the ballad-style singing that they hated from him before they decided they hated his awful MJ impersonation even more. And once again we were reminded that Anoop is NOT the “fan base outrunning singing talent” candidate this year. He’s not another Sanjaya. He has serious singing talent, and this was a seriously good vocal. It probably made an even bigger impression coming on the heels of his egregious suckage the previous week. But truly… judging the vocals alone this was one of the night’s best. The Vote for the Worst people must be so conflicted about Anoop right now.

Megan Corkrey came next, singing “Walking After Midnight” by Patsy Cline. Some people can’t really stand Megan, what with her silly stage movements and limited vocal range. I kind of like her myself, but I’m not sure she really belongs in this kind of competition. She’d be terrific fronting a band like the late great Squirrel Nut Zippers. But as a solo act? I’m really skeptical. Anyway she sang this one about the way you might expect Megan – the good Megan, not the “Rockin’ Robbin” version from last week – to sing it. It was all stylized in that kind of soft-jazzy, Billie Holiday-esque sound. If you like that kind of thing, you probably liked Megan’s performance this week. And that was even before we discovered she was suffering from the flu so severely she’d been hospitalized earlier in the day. Last year when the contestants came down with the flu they were largely told to suck it up – the show must go on and all that. It was made out to be some kind of character test or something. No such tough love for Megan. The judges all but brought her chicken soup and hugs for her bravery after the performance. Somewhere Carly Smithson threw a shoe at her television upon seeing that.

Matt Giraud got the pimp slot to close out the show tonight, going with “So Small ” - by Carrie Underwood. Gee… how novel. A male singer singing… *YAWN*… a female country song. Again. Third time tonight in fact. Second time for it being a Carrie Underwood song. Can you FEEL the excitement? Can you? I couldn’t. In fact there was very little to get excited with until about the last third of this song when it really picked up and the full orchestral-arrangement pimpage kicked in. He sang it alright, but he had a few pitch problems. If you watched this thing a couple of times like I did you have no idea how it earned him such a tongue bathing from all the judges afterward. Not on the merits anyway. Seriously, on a week when internet tongues were all abuzz with rumors that Idol is “fixed” (which is BS in my opinion – but some people put a lot more credence in nameless “insider” sources gossiping about pop-culture scandals than me) you’d think they’d want to maintain a hint of reality in their comments. Matt sounded alright… pretty good at best. He definitely did not sound anything like Michael Bublé, even if he kind of resembles him in appearance, which is hardly evidence of great range so why bring it up in that regard? I’m not trying to be a Matt-hater, but don’t get your hopes up if you really like him. The judges are going to pigeon-hole this guy into non-winnability no matter how they try to string him along now.

So anyway, the night of the terrible theme was finally over. It proved to be better in both quality and entertainment value than the theme deserved to be on its own merits. We got a few surprises. But most importantly we got a terrible puzzle. Who was the best of the night? Who was the worst? Who the heck goes home after such a mixed and shaken kind of a night?

Well let’s start by talking about the best of the night. This is going to be such a non-consensus pick I’m breaking it into two parts: My favorite, versus what I expect is the more conventional best of the night.

That’s right, I’m picking Adam Lambert as my favorite of the night. It’s the closest to a Led Zeppelin vocal anyone has ever done on the Idol stage, and to do it on Grand Ole Opry night adds a perfectly defiant touch. There’s not a chance in aytch-ee double hockey stick that Adam was the top vote getter tonight though. To the extent anyone listened to this trying to hear Johnny Cash rather than Robert Plant it was just too much of a mind-reach.

Therefore I’m picking Anoop Desai as the consensus best of the night. From the “dawg” house to the pent house for Anoop! He probably deserved to go home last week for his terrible take on “Beat It.” But he grabbed his reprieve with gusto, and re-established himself as a serious contender rather than some kind of joke or gimmick selection.

Joining Adam and Anoop for top honors of the night, I’d probably include Kris Allen. Less of an Anoop-like dramatic shift than a gradual progression, but he also helped establish himself as a serious contender tonight.

Middle of the pack is muddled and crowded and a lot of these could be at risk. Lil Rounds sang decently, but lost much of he appeal due to the style. Allison Iraheta sang well on a forgettable song. Matt Giraud delivered a workman-like performance in an outrageously over-pimped slot. Danny Gokey sounded like he was almost mailing it in at times during his performance.

The bottom of the night is kind of painful to note this week. The first is Michael Sarver. This hurts because it’s a total theme-casualty. He sang a Garth Brooks song in a Garth Brooks style on Grand Ole Opry week, which sounds like a good thing but it really isn’t. He just marginalized his appeal by playing into a stereotype that isn’t even true about him. Next is Alexis Grace. This one hurts, because she’s usually so good and probably will be again now that she has this “I want to show my softer side” thing out of her system. “Softer” doesn’t have to mean “dull,” but it definitely did for Alexis tonight. The final one is Megan Corkrey. Sympathy for her flu bug, or the quirky appeal of her unique style might spare her the axe. But really, there wasn’t much special about this performance that you couldn’t say about any of her performances. She sounds great in a way, but not like a solo artist.

And who do I think is going home? Wow. This one has the potential to be a shocker. I see plausible scenarios for sending Allison Iraheta and Lil Rounds to the bottom three, even though I don’t think either one would be deserved. I could even see either one of them going, as they both did semi-forgettable performances early in the night. Neither gave their fans much to be excited about, and they might feel safe.

Alexis Grace could go, which would be an overall shocker, but a trip to the bottom three based on that performance is probably deserved.

But I think the most likely to go home are either Michael Sarver or Megan Corkrey. It’s tough though. Each one has a kind of niche appeal which could come on strong to preserve them even while their overall appeal takes a hit. If that’s the case we should be in for one of the shocker losses, and might even see the new “judge save” come into effect.

But I’m not going to try to read the tea leaves in that much detail. I’m picking Megan Corkrey to be sent home, earning lots of talk about how unfair it is because she had the flu. But I don’t think that will be enough to earn her a judge-save. If it’s Michael sent home instead, I don’t think he’ll get a judge-save either.

But what if it’s Lil? Or Allison? Or Alexis? That might draw the save, which would leave the Idol-tour situation in a quandary, since they only send the top ten on the tour. Save all eleven this week and then send the bottom two home the week after , and you have groups of eleven and nine, with no top ten. We’ll worry about how they might handle that if the situation comes up. I’m not really predicting it for tonight.

UPDATE: The Results

Well that was... not entirely unexpected. Not entirely. Also not ideal. What am I talking about?

The results, of course. I've just seen them and... here's how it went down.

On the bleachers-of-safety, Ryan went right across the top row... Danny - safe (of course)... Lil - safe (whew!) ... Anoop - safe (of course). Then we have Allison Iraheta and Michael Sarver both stand. Ryan messes around with them for a bit. We ask Paula to guess which one might be safe. She's back in love with all of humanity and fearlessly predicts all eleven will end up in the finals or something. That was as close as I could get to any meaning out of it. Anyway we quickly learn Allison is in the bottom three (crap!), and so is Michael (kinda figured).

Commercial break. Brad Paisley sings. Commercial break.

Back to the bleachers-of-safety. Ryan goes across the bottom row now, telegraphing who will be in the final pairing and making this all a useless exercise but whatever. Scott - safe (told you), Matt Giraud - safe (figures), Kris Allen - safe (rightly so). Now we come to our final two - Alexis Grace and Adam Lambert. We know there's only one spot left in the bottom three. We learn that Simon hated Adam's performance even more upon rewatching it later. And the we learn that... Alexis is in the bottom three. Deserved for last night, but not a joy to learn.

So our bottom three is quickly established as Allison, Michael, and Alexis. One of them is quickly sent to safety. And that is... Allison (yay!). Michael and Alexis are left to squirm while Carrie Underwood performs with Randy Travis.

We come back and learn the judges have conferred, and would consider using their one-time save for one of these two. We're not told who yet.

Then... Michael is sent back to the bleachers. Alexis is going home unless... they decide to save her. Simon tells her it's all up to her re-performance of the song they all said was the wrong choice for her. She gives it a spirited try and it IS better than it was last night. But... they choose not to save her. Alexis Grace is out.

The final 10, and therefore the Idol road show, has been chosen. Seven guys and three girls. I didn't think they'd allow that to happen. Also, didn't that "Idol is fixed" hot "insider" informant tell us Alexis was already chosen for the final four? Oopsie. Maybe there's still time to pretend they have insider info on The Biggest Loser or something.

Next week the theme is Motown - should be a MUUUUCH better theme for this group. I'm expecting big things. Alexis would have sounded great with that theme. But it's time to move on.

Lil Rounds - “The Way You Make Me Feel” Lil gets the leadoff spot on the first night, which is usually a challenge. Someone forgot to inform Lil because she performed as if already in mid-season stride. The song choice seemed a bit odd at first, but within the first few beats she had convincingly styled the thing to suit her. She showed a bit of her power and range, but as the song didn't call for much showing off she kept it pretty tight - but in the good, controlled sense. Very strong lead off. Despite my previous commments, she's not exactly a Fantasia clone. I can't quite put my finger on the distinction yet. I'll get it in the coming weeks. The judges once again love, love, love them some Lil and their comments continued to reinforce this.

Scott MacIntyre - "Keep the Faith" Seeing Scott behind the baby grand felt more comfortable to all of us. No more awkward posing the blind guy and aiming him in the general direction of a camera. Now he could be a bit more free. It helped. This was only the second song of the night, but already Michael Jackson was feeling like less and less of a constraint, as Scott in his own very different way bent this song to suit his style. The fact that it was a lesser known MJ song definitely helped, contrary to what Simon later contended. This was rock solid, and about as good as I expect Scott to sound. The judges all loved it save for Simon feeling the need to hate the song itself though not Scott's performance.

Danny Gokey - "P.Y.T." This one seemed like a pretty weird choice. Danny Gokey? P.Y.T? The Thriller era? But for the third time in a row, which has to be a record for the lead off of a Top 12 (or 13), the adaptation of song to singer seemed effortless. Suddenly this wasn't a crotch-grabbing, squeaky MJ song, but instead became Gokey-style power-soul (I'm officially calling "power-soul" Gokey's niche until proven otherwise). Danny had vocal confidence, and his stage presense was almost giddy in places as he seemed to be getting worked up by the emotion of his own performance. The judges again all loved this one, with Paula going so far into her happy place that she named him a shoo-in for the finals, which is a bit ridiculously premature even for a known hallucinator. Simon made fun of his dancing, which Danny agreed with, but Randy came to his defense on it anyway. I'm kind of on Randy's side here. It wasn't so much of a "dance" as just moving with excitement, and it fit.

Michael Sarver - “You Are Not Alone” When Michael started this one seated on the stairs I was worried we were going to head too deeply into some kind of slow ballad. Thankfully it picked up quickly, carrying Michael to his feet along with it. I would like to note, after reading a lot of other internet commentary about Michael, that I feel vindicated for having called out that he actually has a very strong voice, because it was displayed nicely tonight. It is NOT the voice you expect from Mr. Blue-collar roughneck. It's smooth and controlled with pretty impressive range. He's not the best male singer left in the competition, but he's not near the bottom either. The judges were, oddly, surprised that he had such a good voice. Who put him through from Hollywood again? How come I spotted that based on nothing more than the edited footage from Hollywood week and they missed it? Is Paula sharing her pills this year? Anyway... that's four really strong performances to open the show. That's a good night by Idol standards any week. It's unprededented at this stage.

Jasmine Murray - "I'll Be There" I thought this one was a clever choice by Jasmine. She's young, and the judges want her to keep that image, so she picks from the Jackson 5 rather than the Michael Jackson songbook. What's more, it's a song written pretty directly in Jasmine's comfort zone when it comes to key and range. She sounded pretty good singing it too. If she hadn't followed four who went so far beyond expectations it would have sounded even better. She only had a couple of off notes, but they stood out more for being among the first off-key notes of the whole night. The judges dinged her for being a little too robotic which is kind of true. They also praised her for her poise and presense, which is also kind of true though how a robot can do that puzzles me. Anyway, a solid if not exciting performance.

Kris Allen - "Remember the Time" Kris hit the stage for this self-accompanying on an accoustic guitar, which I didn't understand at all but was willing to hear him out. And I'm glad I did because it was probably my favorite musical accompaniment of the night. Seriously. No offense to our baby-grand players, but Kris was the only one who did anything terribly innovative with his accompaniment. What's more it worked. And it worked on a song you wouldn't imagine fitting an accoustic guitar into. So props to Kris for that. The vocal was also pretty good. Not enough to blow anyone away. Certainly good though. I thought the total package here was greater than the sum of the parts. The female judges raved about his boy-band teen-idol looks a bit much, but I guess he's the closest they have to that this year. I'm beginning to see some potential to take this guy seriously as a musician.

Allison Iraheta - “Give Into Me”. I have no idea what Allison is going to do with Michael Jackson, and I have no idea what this song is supposed to sound like. For a moment I'm scared. I like Allison and don't want her to screw up so soon. Why did I worry? Hand the girl the mic and just stand back. She knows what she's doing. Idol has been casting about for a legitimate "rocker chic" with the chops to truly contend for a few seasons now. I think they stumbled into it with Allison and the judges are almost giddy over it. It's not just that she has the power and the grit and the attitude... it's that it seems so effortless to her. She's not trying to be "the rocker chic." She's just singing and that's what comes out. Really good. Still loving her. The judges were too.

Anoop Desai - "Beat It" Is there anyone in the audience who didn't cringe when they heard this song choice? I doubt it. Just as I doubt Anoop had any clue how awful this came off... in every sense. Look, if you're going to take one of THE Michael Jackson pop hits AND you're going to do it in basically the same arrangement you had BETTER be able to sing close to as well as Michael Jackson, and Anoop isn't in the same league. He's hardly even in the same sport. No, no, no. If you MUST do this song and you're Anoop you do something really different with the arrangement and make a clean break. Otherwise you just sound like... a bad Michael Jackson impersonator. Which he did. And all the judges pointed out. This was the kind of car-wreck tonight's theme had me dreading.

Jorge Nunez - "Never Can Say Goodbye" When I heard this song choice the two words that came to mind were "smart," and "safe." It's a well known Jackson 5 song, which suited Jorge's range and style to a tee. And as he sang it I felt confirmed in both sentiments. We didn't really learn anything new about Jorge here, but we were reminded what a beautiful tenor voice he posesses. And then the judges spoke after apparently listening to something else. It was too old fashioned. It was a horrible choice. Even Paula didn't like it. Honest to God, it wasn't that bad. Really calling it "too safe" may ve valid, but he'll be back next week.

Megan Corkrey - "Rockin' Robin" I was hesistent when I heard the song choice. But it's Megan. She's got nothing if she's not offbeat, so let's hear it out. Sometimes first impressions are right. This was just... silly. And I know silly can be a good thing. It wasn't in this case. It was... it just didn't belong. You caught flashes of Megan's quirky, unique voice but it was easily overwhelmed by the silly dayglow lights, the Laugh-in type arrangement, and... well everything. Megan had better hope she can float on personality through the next elimination because the judges did not have her back here.

Adam Lambert - “Black or White” I honestly didn't care what song Adam chose, as I knew he would be able to do whatever he wanted with it. I was a little surprised that he went into this song more or less faithful to the MJ original. But pretty soon it became apparent he wasn't going to stay there. He was just setting up the baseline he was intending to improvise upon. With Adam's voice a lot of the time you get the impression he's just playing around with ideas, never quite sure what he's going to do with it until he gets there. But by the end the sum total of his "playing around" leaves so many of the other singers sounding dull and plodding by comparison. The judges loved him (Paula naming him to the finals like she had with Danny earlier, calling for a Gokey/Lambert final I guess). The audience loved him. I'm not sure we have even come close to seeing what he's capable of yet.

Matt Giraud - ""Human Nature" A good, soulful choice for the guy who has been ordered into his soulful box by the judges. He didn't change this one up much from the original but, he self-accompanied on piano and sounded good doing it. Points awarded for difficulty. Unlike a lot of others he avoided adding lots of gratuitous ornamentation of power notes. Points awarded for taste. But in the end this was just another of the solid performances. Partly due to the nature of the song and partly due to the performance it didn't really soar like some of the others tonight. The judges responses sounded like they wanted to award him some kind of "best of the rest" award, while keeping him outside their top tier of praise.

Alexis Grace - "Dirty Diana" Alexis got the mixed blessing of the opening pimp slot AND the burden of getting the only non-sequential phone number (they apparently didn't plan this top 13 thing quite as far ahead as some rumors had it). That said, she came out with the same kind of energy and power that had made her previous performance such a hit, and earned her a top 13 spot. On the downside she did seem to be pressing a bit more here... going from power to POWER and then back to power. Not a lot of room for taking a breath, let alone layering some emotion into the song. That said, it was still a really good performance for keeping her in the grouping of the top talent this year. Perhaps a hint off what we heard last time, but not leaps and bounds away. The judges were kind of mixed, but generally seemed to like it.

So let's get to the summary. It's a lot tougher than I thought it would be for an unexpected reason... we had a LOT of strong performances tonight. What's more so many of them were strong in very different styles rendering comparisons all the more challenging.

I'm going to group the contestants into three tiers... top, middle, and bottom... based on their how I personally think they compare to one another.

The top group is the easiest to name for me, but hardest to differentiate. I'll include Lil Rounds, Danny Gokey, Allison Iraheta, and Adam Lambert as the best of the night, If I had to single out one as the very best it would probably be Adam Lambert, but not by nearly as large a margin as the judges seemed to think.

The "middle of the pack" group is a little tougher. The top of the group nudge against the top tier, but didn't quite make it in my opinion. The bottom of these have a little more separation between themselves and the bottom tier though. I'll put these in order from top to bottom.

Scott MacIntyre, Kris Allen, Michael Sarver, Alexis Grace, Matt Giraud, Jorge Nunez. Guess I disagree with the judges about Matt being "best of the rest."

The bottom group is sadly easy to single out tonight: Anoop Desai, Jasmine Murray, and Megan Corkrey. Among these Anoop is sadly the worst. Megan is next. Jasmine wasn't as bad, but also wasn't quite in the league of the "middle of the pack" listed above.

But that's only my own ranking. That doesn't mean that's how I necessarily think the votes will fall. Remembering that TWO contestants will go home this week, this could get tricky and unnecessarily unfair as some of these singers haven't developed much of a fan base yet. But... my predictions on the two going home are.....

Jasmine Murray and Anoop Desai. Jasmine because she's a little on the dull side and was unlikely to win a lot of new fans tonight. Anoop because he train-wrecked and was easily worst of the night.

Tomorrow we'll see what America has to say about that. All I know is it had better not be Alexis Grace, since they stuck her with the sucky improvised phone number which could unfairly depress her vote total.

UPDATE: The Results

Interesting new twist on the competition this year, but not as much of a big change as had been hinted at. The judges now are allowed to save one and only one eliminated contestant one time this season. And they have to use it or lose it before the final five. Which is a little odd since some of the examples they used - Tamyra & Daughtry to be specific - could not have been saved by this, as we were already into the final five when they went home. Jennifer Hudson and Michael Johns? Sure. But would they have beaten out respectively Fantasia Barrino and David Cook anyway? I don't think so. Eh... it will end up an interesting plot twist for some episode, but it's not likely to change the outcome at all. On to the eliminations...

Props to myself for correctly picking the bottom four (scroll up if you doubt me... my "middle" group was ranked in order with Jorge at the bottom - the rest of those up for elimination tonight were named as my bottom three).

As for who went home... Okay first, in my defense, I thought Puerto Ricans had phones. I mean... I seriously thought Jorge could come out and sit on the stage with a smile and make it through on ethnicity alone for a couple of rounds. Heck, Phillipino Americans were able to sustain Jasmine Trias and Ramiele Malubay far longer than either deserved the past couple of seasons. I thought Puerto Ricans would have something close to that pull.

Anyway, to make a long story short, Jasmine Murray and Megan Corkrey were paired and told one of them was going home. It was Jasmine.

Anoop and Jorge were similarly paired and told one would be going home. It was Jorge.

The judges, surprising no one, did not exercise their one time save to spare either of these. And frankly the overall field is stronger for having lost them.

Which is kind of impressive, as we're usually carrying a couple of lower-talented dead-weights by now, as special interest groups (such as, hypothetically - and apparently only hypothetically, Puerto Rican Americans) preserve their personal favorites to the detriment of overall quality.

Anyway next week will have a subtext they never make much of a big deal out of on the show, but it actually the BIGGEST deal to the contestants short of winning the whole thing. Next week we go from eleven to ten. How many Idols go on the fame-building and money-making Idol tour next summer? Ten. Which ten from the remaining eleven will that be? That's what next week will tell us. They probably won't mention it because they never do, but you know they Idolateers will be feeling the pressure next week.

The theme next week is supposed to be the Grand Ole Opry, apparently. Should we be afraid, or take a lesson from MJ week that these contestants know how to work a challenging theme?

Matt Giraud 100-1

I feel like I have to defend this one before I can even start explaining it. For the record I don't think Matt will be the next one eliminated, see the disclaimer about this kind of handicapping above. Actually I think he's going to shine for a while once reunited with his piano. But I also think he's going to cap out as being too much of the same thing all the time. And if he tries to be something else the judges will savage him. That makes him seriously unlikely to win this thing.

Megan Corkrey 50-1

The judges are absolutely right that she's likable. Absolutely right that she has a unique, marketable style. But I'm not sure that the things that make her so special are likely to show well in head to head singing competition week after week. She's unlikely to drop a true clunker by trying to sing Celine or something. That said, she seems to have very low potential for dazzling us with an unexpected virtuoso performance either.

Jasmine Murray 50-1

We saw a hint of her youth and inexperience in her first performance. Her wildcard performance showed us she could learn, and master her nerves. But at just seventeen years old, we're likely to see those nerves come back at some point. She is also apparently intending to go the "diva" route, which means she'll be going after big, challenging vocals and there are a lot of better singers than her in this competition already. Her personality also seems a lot more tense and practiced than others, which won't endear her well to the viewing audience over time.

Anoop Desai 30-1

Anoop is going to be a fan favorite... up to a point. He's smart, telegenic, and well spoken. He sings well, though not as well as some others. Nothing he has shown us so far leads one to suspect he's going to break into the top tier of contenders at any time. He's definitely got top ten potential. Maybe even top 6 potential. But when it really gets tight at the top, I don't see room for Anoop.

Jorge Nuñez 25-1

His dominance of the Latino vote is going to keep him going for a while. His looks will keep him going longer. This amounts to one big advantage for Jorge - he will have time to show us a breakout moment or two. He will have the opportunity to expand beyond an Enrique Iglesias-style crooner. He will also have the opportunity to stumble badly in the early rounds and probably survive, which is more than most others will have. That said, I'm skeptical there's a lot of verasatility to Jorge's act. A good voice? Yes, for sure. But there needs to be more for him to win.

Kris Allen 20-1

Kris is a challenging one to place here. Frankly I think the odds of him exiting very quickly are pretty high. But the more I looked at what we know and what we don't - based on what has been broadcast so far - I have to admit there is some breakout potential here. Compared to some of the consensus front-runners so far, he's definitely flown under the radar. What's more he's definitely got serious vocal talent and stage experience. He'll need to expand his boy-band niche to have a serious shot, but stranger things have happened.

Michael Sarver 15-1

As I was doing this ranking I kept moving Michael down the list... and then kept moving him back up upon further consideration. Looking at Michael it's easy to forget how good his voice really is. The performance that won him his spot in the top twelve thirteen was probably the worst he' sounded in his screen appearences so far. And unlike others, he's had quite a bit of screen time. If he was relying only on his rugged good looks and working-class back story he would cap out his potential a lot lower, kind of like a civilian version of Season Two's Josh Gracin. But because he can seriously sing he starts creeping into the ranks of those with a real shot.

Allison Iraheta 12-1

And now we begin the ranks of the real contenders. Among these, Allison is the longest shot. She's the youngest. She's got the least experience. She seemed awkward in the ritual pre-performance banter with Seacrest in her first performance week. But... she can really sing. She's got power and range. She's got an edgy, memorable look. When performing she doesn't seem like the youngest one in the competition, but rather transforms into a confident pro. All that said, she is very young, and the nerves and inexperience still might sneak in to trip her up. But breakout potential is definitely there as well.

Scott MacIntyre 10-1

He doesn't have the greatest voice in the competition, but no one else is quite like him either - and I don't just mean the blindness. He sings in a straightforward, pure style - more Art Garfunkel than R & B. That sets him apart from just about every other male contender. He's going to have a massive sympathy vote which is going to allow him to stumble and work things out in the early rounds. He's got a ton of performing experience before Idol. He's much better when they allow him to sit at a keyboard, which he gets to do from now on. He's also incredibly intelligent (he's a freakin' Rhodes scholar, for cripes-sake), which can't hurt as he figures out how to play to the judges and the audience.

Alexis Grace 8-1

The judges already compared her to Kelly Clarkson, so you know that voice we heard in her first performance wasn't some mirage. There are a lot of intangibles to like about Alexis. She comes across as a down to earth mom-next-door type. The pink hair gives her a distinctive look to set her apart and make her more memorable. She has a voice that shouldn't be intimidated by any theme. And she has some stage confidence which plays well to the Idol cameras. Breakout potential? One might argue she's done it once already in her first performance.

Danny Gokey 5-1

He's got the look. He's got the contemporary voice. He's got the judges' love. He's got the heart-tugging back story. He's got at least as much camera time as any other contestant this season. Not only does he have breakout potiential, he's the kind of contender the Idol producers pull out the stops to promote with extra-good lighting, and arrangements and all the other gimmicks. Were it not for just a couple of other contenders, he'd be the clear front-runner. Could he cap out and prove not very versatile? It's possible. But he's one judges are going to try to guide to the top, rather than brush off as not ready.

Lil Rounds 3-1

Can a "Fantasia" win this show twice? That's perhaps the biggest bar Lil will face as she heads into the Top Thirteen. Unlike most other Idol seasons, Lil is the only black female singer who can bring the gospel-soul vibe which is always a fan-favorite. Like Fantasia, she can easily slide into the "diva" style to show off her range and skill whenever she'd like. Unlike Fantasia, she's not battling it out with two other singers with exactly the same style (from the memory bank: Fantasia battled for her niche against Jennifer Hudson, and Latoya London in Season Three). Lil is going to have the judges cheering for her all the way. She may not be bringing something brand new to the Idol stage, but she's bringing a proven winning formula.

Adam Lambert 2-1

If there is any contestant who has the capacity to bring something totally new to the Idol stage, it's Adam. He has ridiculous vocal skill and versatility. He has extensive stage experience, so expect no jitters here. Could he take a wrong turn by going too far into threatrical showmanship? Sure. Just as likely he'll find a way to tap into that to find a performance or two that blows the rest of the contenders away. A quick stroll around the Internet tells me he's already the contender people look to for originality and creative spins on whatever theme they announce. That kind of excitement can go a long way. If he performs to the best of his ability, it might be good enough to overwhelm the best from any other contender.

So there you have it. Place your (rhetorical) bets.

Jesse Langseth the Minnesota girl puzzles the heck out of me for her selection. The way they announced this one last night was unlike the way they announced any of the others, making it very clear it was a last minute change to include her. That leads me to believe there is probably one particular style that could win her a spot if she finds it. It probably also means they're looking for more girls in the top twelve. She sings ”Tell Me Something Good,” by Rufus and Chaka Khan. And I thought this one was a mess. She seemed to be singing in a different key than the band most of the time. It was certainly not a boring choice, but she couldn't quite get control of it either. At times it seemed like the background singers were going to take the song back from her. The judges were actually pretty complimentary considering what I heard.

Matt Giraud has a very well-defined box in the judges' minds - barroom piano blues. If he takes one tiny step outside that box tonight, he's finished. If he stays within it, can he really shine without his piano anyway? He went with ”Who’s Loving You” by the Jackson 5. And doing so he leaped right back into that box the judges ordered him into and danced like the proper little monkey they want him to be. Oh he sang it really well, like we might expect him to in this style of song. But it's not going to win him anything in the long run. Let's hope he gets a chance to have his piano back. Anyway, the judges wanted to hear exactly that from him so they loved it.

Megan Corkrey probably comes into this round at the very top of the judges' handicapping list among the wildcards. They love her personality and look. They like her unique style. And they are seriously short of girl contestants in the top twelve. Her fate would seem to be in her own hands. “Black Horse and the Cherry Tree,” by K. T. Tunstall is her song choice, bringing back visions of Katherine McPhee for just a moment before she obliterates them by not having a style remotely similar. Once again she's swinging her arms while standing stationary at the mic, like she's doing some kind of Teletubby dance. And once again, darned if her personality doesn't make a just-okay vocal seem better than it really was. The judges love, love, love her, and I have no doubt she's in the top twelve.

Von Smith actually performed pretty well last time, despite the expectation for him to be too over-the-top. He seems a likely candidate to pull in the teen-idol vote as well. I've got a sneaking suspicion he's closer to the top of the pack in the judges' minds coming into this round than is commonly believed. He sings “Sorry seems to be the hardest word” by Elton John. Once again he seems to struggle with an overly subdued opening, only really coming into his comfort zone when the song picks up and gives him the chance to belt it out a bit. It was a solid, but not very exciting performance. The judges basically announce that he's boring and therefore finished, save for Paula who seems to want to go into loser-consolation mode a wee bit prematurely. So much for my theory about how close he was to the top.

Jasmine Murray is one who was almost a sure thing for the judges to revive for the wildcard, as they've loved her from the start. That said she probably had the weakest initial performance of anyone in the wildcard round. Another even close to that and she's done. She sings “Reflection” by Christine Aguilera. Clever. The teen who seemed too mature last time picks a Disney song this time. She's a zillion times more comfortable and animated on stage this time, and the vocal is nothing special but solid enough. I think she's given the judges what they wanted to see. They're blah, blah, "wow we're so surprised you sing so well," blah, blah. Yeah, right. As I thought last time, you've had her pre-picked for the finals for a while now.

Ricky Braddy seemed to be a screen-time casualty in the first round. I thought he outsang either of the two guys (Danny Gokey and Michael Sarver) who made it to the top twelve on his performance night. That said, he'll have to absolutely kill here to earn a spot, as he'll get zero points for personality, commericalness, or whatever else they try to compute winners by. He sings “Supestition” by Stevie Wonder. It's a weird choice and I wish he'd picked another. But actually, he gets it going and keeps it moving better than expected. His vocal talent easily masters a song that's deceptively difficult, generally eating up Idolateers who attempt it. If the judges were serious about Ricky getting a fair shot, he might have made it... but they're not. Kara and Paula seem to be considering, until Simon and Randy slam the door, all but waving him off and yelling "Next!"

Tatiana del Toro is hard to figure. The judges clearly realize she has real vocal talent. But they just as clearly realize she comes across as borderline insane. I'm not even sure if she's here to be given a serious shot or to liven up the wildcard round with drama. She sings “Saving All My Love For You” by Whitney Houston... wait, what? I must be mistaking that for her first performance. No... no I'm not. She is AGAIN singing “Saving All My Love For You” by Whitney Houston. As soon as I see that I know our happy ride with Tatiana in the crazy-kart is coming to an early end. What's good about her vocal is the same as last time. Ditto for what's not good about it. New items: She now apparently has a Spanish accent and just like Jorge thinks in Spanish when she's excited making her English twisted. Imagine that. God I'm going to miss this Sybil-like freakshow. But the judges derisive comments mingled with superficial constructive criticism make it pretty clear they're not intending to keep her.

Anoop Desai is probably the leading guy coming into the wildcard. I'm not sure he could survive a real clunker of a performance, but he may well win through on just an average performance. Unless, of course, some others really bring down the house and he gets a polite golf clap. But how likely is that with an Idol audience anyway? Anoop takes the WILD pimp slot in WILD fashion by singing “My Perogative” by Bobby Brown. And you know what? Anoop got the house poppin'. Seriously it wasn't like some moment of pure art or anything. But it was definitely fun and showed serious vocal talent, as well as his ability to work a stage. Nicely done. The judges were a little hesitant because apparently he sang this in Hollywood too (though we, the viewing public, didn't get to see it. Remember us? Sometimes I think Idol doesn't this season.). After that they fawned all over him.

So after this is all wrapped up they head to commercial break telling us they'll announce the final three (and they have a plan...). I make a mental note to myself that I think it's going to be Megan (totally sure), Anoop (totally sure), and Jasmine (90% sure). I knew they wanted Megan period. They wanted Anoop as long as he showed up lively and fun, and he did. And they wanted another girl in the already male-imbalanced final twelve. And Jasmine was clearly the next in line for that spot.

So we come back from commercial break and they announce Jasmine Murray is in. No surprise to me. Now I'm pretty sure I've nailed them all.

Ricky Braddy is not in. Not necessarily fair, but also no surprise.

Megan and Tatiana are brought forward together. Only one will be in. Gee I wonder who? It's Megan Corkrey of course. It takes them a moment to mop Tatiana off the stage area afterward.

Jesse Langseth is not in. Neither is Von Smith. The only surprise there is Simon insisting Jesse was "very nearly in."

Now it's down to Anoop and Matt. Both performed well. But I simply cannot see them picking Matt over Anoop. Therefore I was stunned for a moment when they tell Matt Giraud he's in.

But then they call Anoop back as he's wandering abjectly off the stage, and announce that they've decided to make it a Top Thirteen instead of Twelve, and Anoop Desai is in!

Wow. Well played Idol. Even us cynical Idol bloggers didn't see that one coming. We get to see Piano Man with his piano again and the Anoop-dog.

So there we have it. The Top Thirteen are...

Danny Gokey
Alexis Grace
Michael Sarver
Allison Iraheta
Kris Allen
Adam Lambert
Lil Rounds
Scott MacIntyre
Jorge Nuñez
Jasmine Murray
Megan Corkrey
Matt Giraud
Anoop Desai

We'll see them all perform next week when the viewers once again seize control over who stays and who goes, much to the producers chagrin it would seem.

Von Smith has had a little bout of celebrity before Idol, being "discovered" by Rosie O'Donnell on YouTube and subsequently being invited to sing on The View (and subsequently mocked by Joel McHale). He has a reputation as being a wee bit... dramatic... when he sings. Let's see if he's learned to tone it down any. He's singing “You’re All I Need to Get By” by Marvin Gaye. Surprisingly understated to start off. Maybe even too understated. But eventually he gets to the power notes, and does an admirable job showing control and restraint while still bringing the appropriate power and range. Overall surprisingly good. The judges seemed really receptive as well. Still... lead off spot. That's not to his advantage.

Taylor Vaifanua has been the subject of internet rumors, but not a lot of producer love in terms of screen time. Supposedly the judges love her, though we've seen little of that on camera yet. She's another really young one. Let's see. “If I Ain’t Got You” by Alicia Keys is the song choice. It's kind of low. And then it wanders off pitch a bit. Then it sort of recovers but it is soooo dull and slow. To borrow a Simon-patented single word dismissal: forgettable. The judges seemed uniformly disappointed in her, though Kara oddly wanted to go shopping with her.

Alex Wagner-Trugman has seemed like a likable kid so far. He's got this combination of self-aware dry wit, but with a genuine humility which keeps it from seeming cocky. The brief snippets of singing we've heard from him so far have been good. But I don't think we have a real sense of him as a singer yet. Who is he? Randy apparently thought he was like Joe Cocker once, but he's singing “I Guess That’s Why They Call it the Blues” by Elton John. It doesn't start of very well. And then it gets weird. Out of nowhere suddenly he's growling. It doesn't belong anywhere in this song or arrangement, and it throws him off key. He knocks over the microphone. Ugh. His banter with the judges after wins him some charm points, but nothing can rescue that performance.

Arianna Afsar I recall from her audition. It was a good but not outstanding one. She's among the youngest this year, and apparently has a pageant background. I'm skeptical she's quite ready for the big leagues yet, but we'll see. She's singing “The Winner Takes it All” by Abba. At the beginning either she's completely out of synch with the band or it's the weirdest arrangement ever. Then she's finally in synch, but her confidence seems to slip and she loses key. Then she grabs the microphone and belts out a glory note and seems ready to recover. But there are a couple more pitch problems and it never quite comes together. The judges do not approve at all, and Arianna seems shattered.

Ju'Not Joyner is remembered for having a very cute little boy, and impressing the judges during Hollywood week. Also he apparently he made it to Hollywood last year, but was cut. Is the second time a charm? He's singing “Hey There Delilah” by The Plain White Ts (a.k.a. that one Plain White Ts song everyone knows). He did this during Hollywood week, but this is a totally different arrangement. Very low key. Surprisingly subtle. This guy can really sing. He's got enough confidence to pull of something this understated his first time on the big stage, and that says a lot. The judges are clearly impressed. Potential dark horse?

Kristen McNamara is better known for being involved in perhaps the most drama-queen prone of all the groups in Hollywood. Why yes, she was in Nathaniel's group, now that you mention it. She's been a previous contestant on Star Search and Nashville Star, so she ought to have a bit more experience with this kind of thing than most of the others. Will that help her? She's going with “Give Me One Reason” by Tracy Chapman. Only it's some kind of cheesy cruise-ship arrangement. Tracy Chapman is not supposed to sound peppy. Her voice is decent. Her interpretation of this song is non-existent. Isn't that what we usually call "karaoke" on this show? And yes, we finally come to that with Randy's criticism.

Nathaniel Marshall is known for crying, flaming, and occasionally singing. the producers have already cast him as a clown, with a lot of help from Nathaniel himself. Let's hope he has a voice good enough to make us forget.“I Would Do Anything for Love” by Meatloaf is an interesting choice for him.... which he instantly turns into the gay discotheque version of this song. He's got a good voice, but the camp... ugh... too much to overcome. This was totally the opposite of what he needed to break out of his clown role. The judges honestly are all over the map with him, and in his shoes I would have no idea what to make of it. Is the problem his song choice? His head band? Or did they really like him?

Felicia Barton has already gotten saved from elimination once this season, being selected to replace alleged "ringer" contestant Joanna Pacitti after she was determined "ineligible to continue." Is she just there as fodder to be knocked down, or can she seize the moment? She's singing “No One” by Alicia Keys. Hmm... It starts off a little iffy, but she quickly hits her groove and delivers a surprisingly strong performance. Not something to blow anyone away, but very solid. She's certainly among the upper half of performers so far. The judges seemed to be rooting for her, but not like they would for a true favorite.

Scott MacIntyre has been well known since his audition, being "the blind guy." This is one of those moments where that lack of an instrument sucks, because Scott's not likely to dazzle us with dance moves or anything. And his voice alone hasn't struck me as the strongest. He chooses “Mandolin Rain” by Bruce Hornsby, which I've never heard before. It turns out to be a good song choice. He's one of the few in the competition who doesn't try any R&B vocal ornamentation, which brings his voice across with a clarity and sincerity many of the others are lacking. He has some weak points, but he nails the power notes. The judges fawn all over him, as expected.

Kendall Beard is apparently some kind of blonde country singer with a tendency to blend into the background, as I have very little recollection of her. The intro reminds me she was the blonde Texas girl from the Puerto Rico audition. A hidden gem, or just that forgettable? She sings “This One’s for the Girls” by Martina McBride. It turns out to be a good song choice and good style for her. She's lively and likable, if a little repetitive and not terribly exciting as a performer. Fairly strong vocal, but we've heard some better tonight. The judges were actually overly harsh here. She was pretty good, and the most authentic country voice so far this season.

Jorge Nuñez seems to be the first Spanish accented heart-throbby guy to make it this far on Idol - and they have certainly been looking for one for a while. The accent problem has always tripped up the previous attempts, turning their performances into comedy. This guy hasn't seemed comedic at all yet. Much is made in his intro about his work on his accent. He sings “Don’t Let the Sun go Down on Me” by Elton John, which seems like a strange choice, but actually kind of works for him. He doesn't show much of an accent now, but he does show a surprisingly strong and controlled voice. Really this might be one of the night's best vocals, throwing the whole accent issue out the window. Then the judges muddle up the whole thing by telling him he needs to get his accent back or something, but... they uniformly praised his vocal. He might have a real shot here.

Lil Rounds is one of the judges and producer's favorites so far. She's got the hard-luck story. She's got the big-booming gospelish voice. She comes across as far more mature than the rest of the contestants. I expect her to shine tonight. She sings “Be Without You” by Mary J. Blige. Wow, does she have confidence. She hits the stage like she expects to be great, and doesn't miss a beat. Easily the best vocal of the night, and among the tops for the season so far. She's one of those with talent that makes this "will she make the top twelve or not" thing seem like just a formality in her case. The judges were already speculating how she'd be doing weeks later in the competition, so they're not too worried about tonight's vote eliminating her either.

So let's wrap up the evening. It seemed a bit stronger of a group overall than the past couple of weeks. But that doesn't change the number of spots going through based on tonight's voting. I think there were some who stood out clearly from the rest. Trouble is, by my count there were more than three. So who will move on?

Top girl: Lil Rounds. Because it's just, duh. No one else came close.

Top guy: Scott MacIntyre. Because the sympathy vote, plus a strong performance, plus prior-round pimpage, plus the desire to see him sing with his keyboard again are enough to seal the deal.

Best of the Rest: This one is tough. I could make a case for Ju'Not Joyner, Jorge Nuñez... even Von Smith... heck even Felicia Barton. But, as scary highlanders are fond of saying, there can be only one. So I think I'll have to predict... Jorge Nuñez. He'll have the Latino vote locked up. He really did have a great night. And his good looks won't hurt either.

Still Alive for the Wildcard: Obviously, Ju'Not Joyner, Von Smith, and Felicia Barton. I'm hesitant to extend beyond that, but if I had to I'd add Kendall Beard... because they like blonde country girls on this show.

The Journey Ends For: Taylor Vaifanua, Alex Wagner-Trugman, Arianna Afsar, Kristen McNamara, Nathaniel Marshall

That's how I see it going down. Feel free to call me wrong in the comments.

UPDATE: The Results AND Wildcard Announcement

Well they sure covered a lot for a typical Idol results show tonight. We got the top three from this round AND we learned all the contestants named for the wild card round tomorrow night, about which I have some words, but first... the results.

America voted... exactly how I thought they would for once. It's been a while. I feel vindicated for persevering so long in predicting this stuff.

What that means is... Lil Rounds, Scott MacIntyre, and Jorge Nuñez all move into the top 12.

It also means Ju'Not Joyner, Von Smith, Felicia Barton, Kendall Beard, Taylor Vaifanua, Alex Wagner-Trugman, Arianna Afsar, Kristen McNamara, and Nathaniel Marshall did not. Or DOES it?!!

Because tonight the judges also announce the Wildcard contestants and... Now seems like a good time for my aside about that.

I've been a supporter of the Wildcard round. I like that second chance thing. I like the added unpredictability of it. That being said... the way they've announced they were going to handle this thing has been changing over time. And in the end it turns out to be a way for the judges to try to "correct" the voters by getting a full quarter of the top 12 selected regardless of the voting. Because, as we learn now, here is how they have finally decided to do the Wildcard:

The judges select eight contestant from the top 36 who didn't get voted in. They choose them by however they feel like doing it. Then those contestants perform one more time. And the judges, not the voters, pick their three favorites from that lot to fill the remaining spots in the top 12.

Is there some reason a show which has mass call-in votes every other performance round CAN'T have that happen for the Wildcard round? Of course there isn't. They're intentionally removing voter choice from the equation for reasons I'm sure they think are terrific. But as screwed up as this top 36 structure has already made the audience investment in the finalists so far, this seems like yet another step in the wrong direction.

There. I've had my say. Now we can go back to who will be performing in the Wildcard round tomorrow night.

We see a bunch of people from the first two rounds they brought back for consideration, and are told all the ones who didn't make it through tonight are also eligible.

The Wildcard contestants are...

Von Smith... Peformed well in a group with a lot of talent. Probably deserves this second shot.

Jasmine Murray... Seemed consumed by the big-stage jitters, but obviously a judge favorite before that.

Ricky Braddy... I thought he deserved it the first time he performed, and pleasantly surprised the judges brought him back.

Megan Corkrey... I also thought she deserved it the first time, and am not remotely surprised the judges brought her back.

Tatiana del Toro... YES!!! The drama is BACK! The crazy is once again just one eye-twitch away! Umm.. she sings pretty well too.

Matt Giraud... I was rooting for this one, but I fear he can't shine without his piano.

Jesse Langseth... A bit shocked by this one, which the judges told us was a last minute change. I thought they'd written her off.

Anoop Desai... Totally expected this one. Also finally we can have the epic battle of the eyebrows between Anoop and Jorge.

So that's it. Wildcards perform in a one hour show tomorrow night AND the three remaining finalists are named. Sleep well tonight anyway Idolateers. No need for nerves or anything.

Jasmine Murray - “Love Song” by Sara Bareilles. As I previously mentioned, I expect her to win a spot in the finals. That means I'm expecting to hear one of the top female performances of the night to build upon the fanbase the producers have won for her with their audition round editing. Of all the 16 year olds, Jasmine seems like them most composed and prepared for the Idol stage. At least she's seemed that way so far. Then she hits the stage and... oh, that's too low a key. Whoops, there goes the pitch. She made some game attempts to recover in the middle to late parts of the song, but she'd lost it by then. All you could see was a glimmer of her raw talent. As the judges seemed to agree, this 16 year old is not quite ready for prime time.

Matt Giraud - “Viva La Vida” by Coldplay. Piano man! Piano man! Matt, of the dueling piano bar, is another one who should be a contender for a Top 12 spot, though they've handicapped him by disallowing the contestants to self-accompany in these semi-final rounds (quick aside: why? makes no freakin' sense. bah!). Anyway his voice has seemed strong enough to carry him previously. Let's see. At first I loved this song choice. After killing with Ray Charles, this was a zig where we expected a zag. Shades of Blake Lewis eschewing the beatboxing for his opening Keane number in Season Six. But then... well it seemed like he just tried to do too much with it. He lost the melody, the pitch and the soul in some weird attempt to over-ornament this thing. Totally disagree with the judges ordering him back into his box. But if he leaves it, it needs more thought to it next time... if he gets a next time.

Jeanine Vailes - ”This Love” by Maroon 5. This one, the producers do not love. We do not know why. We only know we have yet to hear her sing. We know - and like - plenty of already eliminated contestants better than Jeanine here. She needs to blow us away to get any kind of shot here. And... that's the last we'll hear from Jeanine. Awful, terrible, no-good, very bad song choice. Verging on parody in parts. Lost the pitch for good about two measures in. And I'm sorry, her legs weren't worth all that.

Nick "Norman Gentle" Mitchell - “And I Am Telling You” from Dreamgirls. This is going to be one to remember... and that could be good or terrible. Is American Idol truly able to accomodate a legitimately self-aware comedian, as opposed to the unintentionally funny characters it has often sported in the past? I guess we'll get our first clue about it tonight. However, if Nick comes out as Nick rather than "Norman Gentle" he's doomed. But it's Norman, and a smile hits my face. and yet... this Dreamgirls number again? That's the third time he's done that on this show. If that really is ALL there is to this act, even I don't need to see more of it. And I totally wanted to. He wanders too far from the stage to be funny (and he was), but in doing so couldn't quite hear the band which through him off in the singing. I think this may be the end of Norman Gentle on this show.

Allison Iraheta - “Alone” by Heart. Allison kind of fell off my radar for a while, but I remember loving her audition. She's got the personality and charisma to make an impact, but she's one of the younglings on the show. As we saw last week, even talented 16 year olds often melt into a puddle of nerves on the Idol stage. How will Allison hold up? Wow. Just wow. I did not expect this. The first contestant of the night to blow me out of my socks is one of the 16 year olds?! Yes, I'm afraid so. Where did she learn that kind of power... that control... the cool confidence to pull of a song like THAT?! I picked the wrong 16 year old. This is the one to watch. I'm completely won over and want to see what she does next.

Kris Allen - “Man in the Mirror” by Michael Jackson. This guy hasn't made much of an impression on me yet. He seems like cast filler. He has a good voice. But really, what else is there about him? I suppose this is the time he gets to answer that question. Eh... if you like boy bands, you probably like Kris. Point in his favor: he didn't crash and burn on a Michael Jackson song, as many before him have. Point against, if you're not a tween girl is there anything here that excites you? He's pretty good in a general sense, but my earlier "cast filler" assessment remains.

Megan Joy Corkrey - ”Put Your Records On” by Corrine Baily Rae. This one has been feelin' the love from the judges throughout. She's certainly got star quality looks - pretty, blonde, and a winning smile. She hasn't been afraid to show a sense of wit and personality. She would seem to have a legitimate shot at the Top 12. She hit the stage doing a goofy arm waving thing which somehow she made work with her smile and warmth. From her you'd expect a pop-princess Britney style voice. Instead she delivered a Billie Holiday (as interpreted through Amy Winehouse, Katherine Whalen, etc.) style vocal. Call me crazy, but this was one of the standouts of the night to me. She's different... in the good way. There is no one else like her in this competition, making it tricky for head to head assessment. But I want to see her continue.

Matt Breitzke - “If You Can Only See” by Tonic. Maybe it's just me, but I think this guy's chances went way down when Michael Sarver went through last week. The "blue collar family man" role has been taken, and I'd be stunned if we get two of those in the final 12. Plus, Randy Jackson tried to pigeon-hole him as a "good bar singer, but not a potential star" right from the get-go. Anyway, he's seemed a nice enough guy I'm pulling for him to amaze us. Which he totally doesn't. Drat. He went with a decent song. A decent vocal. And placed himself in the middle of the pack at best. He'd better hope all those judges professing how much they like him earns him a wildcard selection. Because this performance got lost among the others tonight.

Jesse Langseth - “Bette Davis Eyes” by Kim Carnes. The other Minnesota girl in the competition, but this is the bad girl, which is a good thing in some cases. Sister of Johnny Lang. Holder of the prestigious DWI award. Last seen barely sneaking into the final 36 by winning a sing-off with Frankie Jordan (full disclosure: I was pulling for Frankie). Let's see if she can redeem herself tonight. The song selection was one of the most interesting to me tonight. And in some ways she seriously delivered on its promise. But... there was just something missing. In the Kim Carnes original there's this barely contained wildness at certain points, to offset the cool vibe. Jesse didn't seem to get that. The judges refused to love her without it.

Kai Kalama - “What Becomes of the Broken Hearted” by Jimmy Ruffin. Kai has been most notable for his unusual ethnicity, and basic likeability. The producers didn't like that enough to spare us a view of him mangling his lyrics during Hollywood week. He has seemed to me more competent than truly great. Let's see him make a liar of me. But he doesn't. His performance in a single word: boring. His performance in a single letter: ZZZZZZZZ. Hey, I like throwback Motown stuff. This wasn't throwback. It was imitative without the soul. I don't care to hear from him again, and we won't.

Mishavonna Henson - ”Drops of Jupiter” by Train. We've seen Mishavonna in passing during the audition rounds, but rarely when singing. Seems positioned more as an also ran, than a real contender. But that's just what the producers think. What does her voice tell us? It tells us she's technically pretty good. But it also suggests she lacks either the boldness or the skill to really soar. While delivering one of the better female vocals of the night, she shied away from any and every opportunity to deliver a memorable vocal. She either couldn't or wouldn't put her personal brand on the song, and as a result fell short.

Adam Lambert - “Satisfaction” by The Rolling Stones. We already covered Adam a bit above. I'm expecting something chosen to tone down the theatricality, but delivered with intense passion. Adam's voice has really set him apart from the pack so far. The way he could trip himself up is by failing to deliver a spectacular vocal. And the verdict? Wow. I think he was partially daring Simon to mock him. I mean... half this performance was like a bad Mick Jagger impersonator. But the other half... wow. The range and power of this guy's voice in unreal. Sure, he can be theatrical. But at some point you have to just sit back and listen to him. I've seen a lot of theater and this is not the kind of voice that is in any way "typical." This is something special. So special he just blew away the rest of the guys tonight on talent alone, bad Mick Jagger allusions aside. The first Idol contestant I have ever wanted to hear attempt a Freddy Mercury vocal.

So on to the night's summary...

Best of the Guys: Adam Lambert. I'm in mad love with the talent here. No other guy tonight came anywhere close. Danny Gokey, you're on notice.

Best of the Girls: Allison Iraheta. Are you kidding me? She made me love a Heart song AND a 16 year old Idol contestant in a single performance. Crazy good tonight, but can she keep it going?

Best of the Rest: Megan Joy Corkrey. What can I say, the total package won me over. There's no one else like her in the competition.

Alive for the Wildcard: Jasmine Murray, Matt Giraud, Kris Allen, Matt Breitzke, Mishavonna Henson

The Journey Ends: Jeanine Vailes, Nick "Norman Gentle" Mitchell, Jesse Langseth

UPDATE - The Results:

So we're mixing up the elimination strategy by calling them out in awkward groups and letting them all squirm for a while, eh? If these contestants were animals PETA would be protesting for the unnecessary cruelty.

Anyway, we learn fairly quickly that Allison Iraheta is IN!!! Score! That was one I rooted for.

At the same time we learn that Jesse, and Matt B. are not in the top 12.

Next group... We have Megan, Kris, Matt G., and Jeanine.

Jeanine is put out of her misery early, as no one would have believed she might be among the finalists, so why bother. Next we lose Matt G. Sad, but not unexpected after last night.

Then the tension is ratched way up until we learn... Kris is through. Huh. I suppose it's alright. I was rooting for Megan. But I can't really make a strong case for her over Kris. Kris sang better but struck me kind of ... eh... in memorability. We'll see.

Then we hear Brooke White singing, sounding ... exactly like Brooke White. It's a new song she's pushing and all. But it's still just Brooke. She seems to be doing well.

Final group... Mishavonna, Kai, Nick, Adam and Jasmine. We lose Mishavona, Kai, and Jasmine and are forced to wait an entire commercial break to learn what we already damn well knew... Adam is through, and Nick is not.

So... once again I picked 2 of the 3 finalists. This time the third was a bit less surprising to me, but strangely I like him less than the guy I missed picking last week.

Anyway, next week is group three! Blind guy! Crying-drama guy! Telemundo guy! And, of course, Lil! Should be a nicely dramatic group to watch, if nothing else.

1. Jackie Tohn - "A Little Less Conversation," by Elvis Presley

In the audition rounds she came across as part Amanda Overmyer, part Brooke White, with a personality all her own. This is one of the contestants I've really been looking forward to. She's said she prefers to sing while self-accompanying on an instrument, and we need some of that. She's no sure thing. She's just... interesting.

And wow, did tonight ever teach us how that kind of assessment go to your head. Someone needs to put down the "interesting" bong, and take a hit from the "you're on television - shape the hell up" houka. I mean seriously, she's doing Elvis Presley? ELVIS?! This is the opening impression she wants to leave upon America?! She still showed some originality in both the vocal and the stage comfort... maybe a little TOO much of the latter, but still... I vote for a do over, which means I hope someone picks her for the wild-card round. Because I'd be stunned if America picks her straight away based on this. The judges were kind of ... wow that was... entertaining!!! Which seemed all like a good thing until Simon made it real.

2. Ricky Braddy - "A Song For You," by Leon Russell

Ricky Braddy got all of (calculating) the square root of nada in camera time to sell himself to us prior to this round. Do we even know how he sounds yet? I heard his snippet of mock-opera singing as his "weird talent" in a video on the Idol website. That's about it. Anyway, I came into this totally open minded, waiting to see what Ricky might be able to show.

And wow, did he show up! This was a fantastic "leaving puddles of talent on the stage behind him" kind of vocal. Could the skinny white boy blow like with enough soul to carry this song? Oh yes... yes he could. Could he pull off the runs and the riffs and all that stuff, but still hold the emotion and bring the power in the right places? Check, and check again. And how was it received? Judges 1 through 3 were bowing before the mad skills. Simon noted he lacked charisma. Buck up, Ricky. That was Simon's take on David Cook up until the final 16 last year.

3. Alexis Grace - "Never Loved a Man," by Aretha Franklin

Kind of mixed feelings about Alexis heading into the evening. She has seemed likable enough. I kind of like the contrast of her pink frosted hair and otherwise very down to earth personality. She seemed on the bubble of making the top 36 voice-wise. The idea that her biggest musical influence is supposed to be Aretha Franklin is kind of strange. I mean... look at her. Aretha? Doesn't seem to fit. Anyway, I came in open to being won over.

And she totally made the sale. Hearing this pink-haired, pixie-like girl belt out a soulful Aretha number like she'd lived it was startling enough. Hearing her come across with the vocal chops was above and beyond. I went from skeptic to fan before she even came to the final note. As Simon noted... she's staked her claim to being one of the "dark horse" contestants.

4. Brent Keith - "Hicktown," by Jason Aldean

Okay, this one isn't my fault for not much noticing before because this guy really hasn't had much camera time yet. That's not always a sign of death in Idol terms (Jason Castro had, like, NO camera time before the performance rounds last year). He's got good looks. He's got a good voice. I couldn't pick him out of a police lineup. Surprise me Brent!

Hey everybody... Brent wants to be a country singer! That's what makes him so different! Brent is also boring me to tears! That's what makes him so doomed. Seriously, maybe a good guy. Maybe a good voice. Unless America AND the judges shock me we're not going to hear from him again though. He didn't totally suck. He just totally didn't matter.

5. Stevie Wright - "You Belong to Me," by Taylor Swift

Stevie Wright has a really likable and memorable face. In fact, she looks a lot like Minie Driver. She's one of the elect few sixteen year olds in the finals, and the track record in this category isn't great. They have to be freakishly talented and composed beyond their years to make much of a dent. I'm not getting that vibe from Stevie, but I wouldn't mind being wrong.

But I'm not. She totally fell apart the moment she hit the stage. Her voice couldn't handle the song. It couldn't handle the rhythm. It couldn't find the pitch. She's sixteen. She's likable. You don't rejoice at seeing this kind of car-wreck in such a case. We will simply note, as Simon tried to ham-handedly, that she's young and this isn't the end of the world for her. Then we'll politely move on.

6. Anoop Desai - "Angel of Mine," by Monica

I like this guy. I mean... maybe it's the fact that I work in Information Technology, a field in which people originating from the Indian subcontinent are more plentiful than, oh many things... girls for one. But I digress. Anyway where I was going here is that it's nice to see an Idol with an Indian parentage who's not there as a gimmick or a joke or a (shudder) under-talented teen heart throb a la Sanjaya. In the auditions we learned he can sing for real, has a nice telegenic personality, and even seemed to catch the pickier judges (i.e. Simon's) favor.

So Anoop came out and tried to sell us on his strength as a soulful balladeer. This was not his highest moment. Points in his favor: He was more or less in tune. He was better than the couple of singers before him. Points to his detriment: From about five seconds into the song I was talking to him through my television advising him to never pick a song like this again. Anoop is the kind of singer who can sell you on energy, and lift your mood. Not everyone can do that. This kind of song reminds you of that only in the sense that you realized you needed something like that to pick you up after listening to this yawner of a performance.

7. Casey Carlson - "Every Little Thing She Does is Magic," by the Police

Hey, it's one of the Minnesota girls in the competition! She's officially on my radar for that reason alone, if for no other (of course, some of you DO have some other reasons for following her). Anyway I'm coming in kind of pulling for her, but frankly my expectations aren't sky high. She strikes me as one of those who has to hit just about everything perfectly to have a chance at the top 12. Not because she sucks. Just because she's one of MANY girls who sings the same kind of songs more or less the same way.

Except when she chooses a Police song. Then she's far worse than you could have ever believed. I mean... WTF?! Are you kidding me? She thought she could somehow, in some alternate universe, sound good singing this? This was the kind of performance American Idol has made famous for dismissing as "karaoke" for EIGHT years now. No one caught this? Wow. Only for the sake of staying in tune does this have a shot at not being the worst of the night.

8. Michael Sarver - "I Don’t Wanna Be," by Gavin DeGraw

The roughneck sure had a heck of a build up during the audition and Hollywood rounds. It basically won me over. It's a cool story. If he was belting out Toby Keith or other "redneck acceptable" music it would be one thing. But this guy coasted through the previous rounds singing modern R & B, and doing it really well. He's stated his biggest musical influence is Michael Jackson (?!!) for gosh sake. He's got this combination of blue collar legitimacy and a weirdly legitimate R & B style. No idea how this will play on the big stage, but I'm eager to find out.

And to do so will apparently take the grace of the voters or the judges because Michael decided to suddenly hit us up with a totally different style of song. Hey, it's a decent Idol song. It's got some good pedigree via Bo Bice, Elliot Yamin, and even Cris Richardson. This wasn't as good as any of those prior performances, but it was alright. Just alright. Not special. And it showed little to nothing of the R & B artist he's shown until now. Hey, I'm pulling for the guy and even I can't justify recommending this with anything better than "yeah, but he can do other kinds of music much better!" So anyway... Maybe upper middle of the pack tonight at best.

9. Ann Marie Boskovich - "Natural Woman," by Aretha Franklin

I didn't really pay a lot of attention to Ann Marie during the previous rounds. Did she get much camera time? I honestly couldn't say. As Simon might warn... "forgettable." Or that may just be me. She's got runway model good looks, which never hurts but is also never enough on this show. No clue what to expect here.

And we're not going to have much time to get to know her based on tonight's performance. It was... well it was a stupid song choice for one. She's a pretty girl with a typical "pretty girl" kind of voice. This song is for someone with power and attitude. She not only didn't pull it off, she got exposed like the song had it in for her. She didn't even miss a lot of the notes like others did tonight, and she still ended up sounding about as bad as anyone else.

10. Stephen Fowler - "Rock With You," by Michael Jackson

Stephen Fowler has the ignominy of being mostly known for having very prominent camera time so far only for forgetting the words of a song he'd boasted was easy to learn... and forgetting them twice... and then throwing a temper tantrum and walking off stage. Why this guy is so freakin' talented that was something the judges could overlook in order to choose him over others for the finals we have yet to see. Ahem... I'm waiting Mr. Fowler. Show me.

And by "show me," I did not mean pick a Michael Jackson song to imitate mostly faithfully save for tossing in a gratuitous glory note. Sorry, I should have been more clear. Seriously, NOT seeing what made the judges overlook his Hollywood week meltdown here while sending others home. In a night with some good, some bad, and some middlin', this was at the lower end of the middlin'. To their credit, the judges seemed to expect him not to suck so much.


11. Tatiana Del Toro - "Saving All My Love For You," by Whitney Houston

Oh Tatiana... You already walk the line between talented diva and comedic parody so well you have the potential of an Idol classic. I have high, HIGH hopes for you... in terms of entertainment value anyway. I'm not sure I could stand listening to that laugh deep into the finals. But... when we've heard her sing so far, she's kind of scarily better than you'd expect. Scarily as in maybe one of the best in the competition. What shall we do with that? I suppose it depends what she does starting now.

And my goodness does Tatiania ever play the game! She throws down with a Holy Diva Trinity song... and a BIG one. But... in a move even more shocking... she plays her personality all subdued and low key. Like... "Hmm? Oh, yes, I suppose I was a bit excitable in Hollywood. But that's not really me." (blank stare) The unpredictability makes the crazy more real. Oh, also, she kind of actually pulled of this song. THIS song. Most any other singer would have been RIPPED by the judges on basic principle for attempting this one. I told you she could sing!


12. Danny Gokey - "Hero," by Mariah Carey

Okay, I've bought into the hype... and if any contestant was hyped in the earlier rounds, it was Danny Gokey. He's got the heart-wrenching back story - his wife, as we are endlessly reminded, died just a few weeks before he auditioned. The close friend he made among the other contestants was inexplicably cut on the cusp of the final 36 (and as far as I can tell that friend was better than a few we saw tonight). He's got a voice like a combination of David Cook and Elliot Yamin. He looks like he's Robert Downey Jr.'s little brother. He's got an edge and an attitude at times. He's got a heart worn on his sleeve at others. In short, the Idol Producers have me set up like a sucker yet again. Here's where the BB-gun of reality starts taking shots at the carnival gallery in which Danny will perform.

And it was nice to see Idol judges are as susceptible to this stuff as me because, while I thought Danny gave a really good performance on an unusual song choice (boys doing the Holy Diva Trinity get WAY more leeway, thankfully), I wasn't slain like this was some kind of "all time" Idol performance. However, it WAS a very, very strong first step, and showed Danny could handle the pressure of the inaugural pimp slot, closing the show with confidence and passion. If he's to truly catch fire for the long term it will not be for this kind of song. But for tonight... it worked very well. Probably the second best male vocal of the night, and easily the tops for charisma.


So now we come to the summary. What did tonight show us? What are the big takeaways? Who is going through to the final twelve? Who is still alive in wild-card terms? Who is just... over?

My picks are as follows:

Top Male: Danny Gokey

Top Female: Alexis Grace

Top of the Rest: Ricky Braddy


Alive for the Wildcard:

Tatiana Del Toro, Michael Sarver, Anoop Desai, Jackie Tohn, Stephen Fowler


End of the Road

Brent Keith, Stevie Wright, Ann Marie Boskovich, Casey Carlson


I wouldn't be shocked to see Anoop or Tatiana steal a finals spot from one of the others, though I think that would be wrong. I'd be stunned to see anyone else hit the Final 12 otherwise though. And when the wild-card selection comes, anyone from that bottom group tonight is stealing a place they don't deserve if we see them again.

UPDATE: The Results

Before we get to the contestants selected for the Final 12, can we just point out a couple of things from this results broadcast that deserve mention?

First, doesn't it make a heck of a lot MORE sense to let the winners "sing out" rather than the losers? Why have we had to wait so long for this? I mean... I'm hoping (but not really expecting) that they keep that part once we hit the final 12. Maybe have the overall top vote getter sing out rather than the one eliminated. Because... why do we have to listen to our LEAST favorite song for a second time? Makes no sense. So, golf clap for the Idol producers on this one.

Second, very cool seeing Carly Smithson and Michael Johns return for their duet of "The Letter." Pay attention Season Eight contestants... that's the bar of charisma and talent you're shooting for. Those weren't previous winners. Just also-rans from last year. And, highlights though there have been, none of you has shown us that kind of talent yet. On the other hand, neither had Michael or Carly this early last season, so don't panic or anything.

And now to the results. Typical Seascrest screwing with the contestants minds and gratuitous assault with commercial breaks aside, this one was mostly predictable with one big surprise.

Didn't make it... Brent Keith, Stevie Wright, Ann Marie Boskovich, and Casey Carlson, none of which was a surprise.

Also didn't make it... Stephen Fowler, Jackie Tohn, Anoop Desai, Tatiana Del Toro, Ricky Braddy... wait, what? Doing the math that has to mean...

As expected, the Final 12 will include Danny Gokey, Alexis Grace, and... Michael Sarver? Really?

Well okay. Michael, thank the Idol producers for winning you a fan base in the audition and Hollywood rounds by featuring you so often. Last night's performance wasn't enough to justify your place. I guess a lot of people, much like me, liked your potential a lot. Unlike me, they thought last night's performance was close enough to dial in for you. I would have gone with Anoop Desai if they had to pick another guy above Ricky Braddy.

Anyway, where we stand is a lot less certain this season. Technically NO ONE was eliminated, as every contestant who didn't make the finals tonight could be called back for the wild card round. And considering Paula Abdul gets to make three choices we DO mean EVERYONE still has a shot.

On to next week, where we will finally get to gauge America's reaction to Norman Gentle! That alone is worth tuning in.