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Friday, May 29, 2009

How Paul Krugman Learned to Stop Worrying and Love Inflation

Paul Krugman is concerned about inflation. No... That's not quite correct. He's concerned that YOU are concerned about inflation. In fact he thinks you're kind of a moron who just may be pissing away our unicorn and rainbow dreams in this era of Hopenchange by all your scaremongering about inflation.

The first reason Krugman says you shouldn't worry about inflation is because it could only be a problem if the economy ever actually recovered. But as there's no real indication this is happening (he's not a big believer in those "green shoots" the White House boasts about seeing apparently), forget about inflation. Depression era deflation should be the worry (soming soon: Paul Krugman's column calling you a moron for worrying about deflation).

Okay so... let's say some day in the distant future the economy actually recovers. Inflation could be a problem then, right? I mean... we're accumulating a massive debt "stimulating" our way into the recovery Paul Krugman thinks we needn't worry about. That eventually has to be paid to the people who loaned us all the money, right? And if the debt gets too massive, it could look awfully tempting to inflate the currency so the real value that needs to be paid back becomes relatively less. We should worry about that, right?

No, says Paul Krugman. You know why? Because it's just possible we won't do it, that's why. Belgium, Canada, and Japan didn't after all, when their debt exceeded 100 percent of their GDP. I mean... sure France did once after World War I. And, he doesn't mention, but I will, Argentina did it in the 90's. But look we don't have to do it, so just stop worrying about it. Shut up, that's why.

But then he gets to the heart of the matter... the shadowy reason he suspects all this nonsensical inflation scarin' is spreading around like Swine Flu... Because not everyone has embraced the free spending ways of the Lightbringer In-Chief...

But it’s hard to escape the sense that the current inflation fear-mongering is partly political, coming largely from economists who had no problem with deficits caused by tax cuts but suddenly became fiscal scolds when the government started spending money to rescue the economy. And their goal seems to be to bully the Obama administration into abandoning those rescue efforts.

I don't know. Call me a skeptic, but I have a feeling the inflation fear is not so much about whether or not the deficit comes from tax cuts or massive spending increases, but rather because folks see a bit of a difference between hundred billion dollar deficits sitting as the outliers of an economic plan and a projected stream of trillion dollar plus budget deficits with no plan to ever resolve them. You know... kind of like they looked at this old chart (which, I should point out, erred on the optimistic side by presuming the economy would be growing again by the end of the year - Krugman says we needn't "worry" about that):

click for larger image

That's either one loooooong rescue, or just maybe we've got a spending problem that's going to catch up with us sooner or later. So we don't inflate when the debt hits 100 percent GDP, eh? How about when it hits 200 percent? 500 percent? What is the president's plan to prevent that from happening?

He hasn't given one yet. But it apparently has to do with creating a new health care entitlement to cover every American. Does that sound like deficit reduction or even more massive debt to you?

In other words, yes Mr. Krugman, there is some fear of inflation out there. And no, your assurances that all will be okay aren't quite the reassuring tonic for our nerves you seem to believe.

Posted by Doug Williams on Friday May 29, 2009 at 10:29am. 0 Comments 0 Trackbacks

Wednesday, May 27, 2009

Soto What?

The code of the Aggressively Opinionated Political Blogging Association suggests that I am required to opine about President Obama's nomination of some judge named Sotomayor to the Supreme Court. No matter how fervently I may protest that I don't know anything about the nominee and only have a hazy understanding of proper qualifications for such an appointment, the code insists. Just click around the blogosphere if you doubt me. It's got a full range of opinions about this matter ranging from knee-jerk all the way to official political party talking points. You think that kind of uniform agreement to cover something just happens on its own? No, no. It's the demanding AOPBA code forcing all of our bloggy hands.

To that end, here is my opinion on the nomination of Judge Sotomayor to the Supreme Court:

Ever since the Democratic Party broke from precedent and politicized Supreme Court nominations with their infamous "Borking" of President Reagan's nominee in the 80's (by some cosmic coincidence he was actually named Judge Bork!), these things have become ever more naked exercises of pure political muscle. The process isn't yet quite debauched enough to get a barnyard animal appointed to the nation's highest court, but it's headed down that same path. The kind of intra-party revolt that greeted the last president's nomination of a good personal buddy with few serious qualifications to a Supreme Court vacancy is a rarity I expect to get rarer over time.

Besides, most of the opinions getting generated over this matter have only a tangential relationship to the nominee in question. Partisan rivals are mostly looking for reasons to expose flaws in one another rather than seriously considering the merits of the nomination.

Democrats are writing articles about how the Republicans better not oppose her. Why? Because she's eminently qualified and carrying impeccable credentials, the integrity of which would shame any critic into silence? No, no. Because she's Hispanic and a woman. And if Republicans try to oppose her their opponents will label them racist and sexist and attempt to destroy their ability to get votes from either of those demographics. So that's one version of responsible vetting for the most powerful unelected position in the land.

Republicans, by careful contrast, are looking for evidence in the nominee's record that she holds liberal political views and allows them to influence her judicial decisions. In other words, they're looking for evidence that the nominee might be someone a liberal president would be inclined to nominate. Talk about closing the barn door after the horse is out.

Still there are other lines of careful vetting going on... like trying to find any possible angle that would make undecided voters see their opposition as something other than a knee jerk partisan reaction. This will go on with great enthusiasm for some time. But let's try to put it onto a bit of context.

The Democrats don't need a single Republican vote to confirm the nominee. And they need only one - none if Al Franken is seated in the Senate shortly - to overcome a possible Republican filibuster. Also the Democrats, with very, very few exceptions, couldn't care less what any Republican thinks about this nominee. What they care about is how they might be able to use what the Republicans do and say in the course of the confirmation process against them. And the feeling across the aisle is mutual.

So what we are engaged in here is just another exercise in posturing, positioning, and grandstanding. A Supreme Court nomination is involved here to the same extent that a football game is involved with the Tournament of Roses Parade. Neither one really requires the other, but it's become a venerable tradition to hold them together.

Oh, as for Judge Sotomayor herself? I hope she's well qualified for the office; that all her judgey experience looks properly judgey and experienced; and that she isn't caught on tape somewhere engaging in strange and/or illegal personal hobbies. If all that's in order she's going to be seated anyway so I don't see the great need for me to get worked up about it. I'm under no expectations that His Presidential Coolness made this pick with any intention of pleasing me. And should this nomination fail he'll just nominate another with more or less the same kind of views. So forgive me if I don't bother to look too deeply into the matter.

If you're disturbed by this kind of judge getting onto the Supreme Court, ignore all this confirmation kabuki and try to get someone more to your liking elected president to make the nominations next time.

Posted by Doug Williams on Wednesday May 27, 2009 at 2:50pm. 3 Comments 0 Trackbacks

Tuesday, May 26, 2009

Lies Poor People Tell Themselves

From: Sheldon Comics
Enjoy the giggle, peasants.

The truth is some of the chefs who earn the big bucks actually do know how to make dessert. And they are already well aware of "mom & pop" fare. It's one basis - among many others - upon which they build their dishes.

But laugh, you proletarian pie-eaters. Enjoy your delusions of thinking all those people dropping hundreds of dollars for a dinner are fools because your local diner has better food. It keeps you happy, and that's really important too.

Posted by Doug Williams on Tuesday May 26, 2009 at 10:49pm. 1 Comments 0 Trackbacks

Tuesday, May 19, 2009

American Idol Season Eight: The Finale

Wow, has this season of Idol ever seemed to fly. It feels like just a couple of weeks ago I was yucking it up over the comedic skills of Nick "Normund Gentle" Mitchell, jazzing on the psycho-personality (but very good voice) of Tatiana del Toro, declaring Jasmine Murray the "teen to beat" of the season, and a bit surprised when Von Smith failed to make the final 13.

And suddenly it's down to just the final two: Adam "Glambert" Lambert, and Kris "20-1" Allen.

And where do I get that "20-1" thingy about Kris from? Well after the top 13 were announced, some doofus blogger handicapped the top 13, and those were the odds he he assigned to Kris. In said blogger's defense, he did qualify that ranking thusly:

I have to admit there is some breakout potential here. Compared to some of the consensus front-runners so far, he's definitely flown under the radar. What's more he's definitely got serious vocal talent and stage experience. He'll need to expand his boy-band niche to have a serious shot, but stranger things have happened.

Consider that challenge capably met, the potential breakout broken open wide, and an expansion from the boy-band niche nicely accomplished.

As for Adam, here were the comments:

Adam Lambert 2-1

If there is any contestant who has the capacity to bring something totally new to the Idol stage, it's Adam. He has ridiculous vocal skill and versatility. He has extensive stage experience, so expect no jitters here. Could he take a wrong turn by going too far into threatrical showmanship? Sure. Just as likely he'll find a way to tap into that to find a performance or two that blows the rest of the contenders away. A quick stroll around the Internet tells me he's already the contender people look to for originality and creative spins on whatever theme they announce. That kind of excitement can go a long way. If he performs to the best of his ability, it might be good enough to overwhelm the best from any other contender.

There have been times this season when Adam threatened to run away with the competition all by himself. But the strong efforts of his rivals and the inevitable "less than perfect" performances on Adam's part some weeks kept things close enough. And now we enter a finale which is simply too close to call.

Perusing the internet I notice a persistent theme in the coverage of this finale, and it's pretty tiresome. So can I just go on record as not believing there is some great social symbolism in which portion of America Adam or Kris supposedly represents. Yes, one of them does hail from the left coast, while the other one is from the south. Yes, one of them has pursued his musical interest in the theater while the other one did so in his church. But honestly, following the whole season, has either one of them presented himself as representing anything more than a love of performing the kind of music they like? And as for the "tradition" versus" innovation" meme, did anyone making this contention take the time to notice that Kris' stripped down accoustic arrangement of Kanye's "Heartless" was more innovative and daring than Adam's theatrical presentation of U2's "One" last week? Come on, these guys are different people from different backgrounds but they don't represent some sharp dividing line. Amercian musical interest doesn't work like that, no matter how people try to make it. < /soapbox>

So now we come to the big showdown itself. They're going to each sing three songs. One will be chosen for them by Simon Fuller, another will be their own choice of something they performed earlier in the season, and then they'll each take a crack at this year's "championship" song, which Kara DioGuardi had a hand in crafting. Sounds like a decently fair way to compare the two, provided Simon Fuller doesn't screw it up with his choices for them.

And I, for one, do not miss the contributions of the average song-writing schlubs who penned the past couple of years' "championship" songs in a viewers' song-writing contest. The same kind of shmaltzy crap that was written for the show previously seemed to be exactly what the contest produced anyway. I'll never forgive the stupid "magic rainbow" lyric David Cook was forced to release as part of his first single after winning last season. This way if the song stinks we'll know who to mock for it - Kara. And we've gotten pretty used to that by this point in the season.

So let's get this finale started. Lights... camera... medicate Paula... cue the b-dow, b-dow, b-dow machine... it's....

(Showtime!)

Monday, May 18, 2009

Welcome Back Paul Krugman

Paul Krugman today:

"In a way, it was easy to take stands during the Bush years: the Bushies and their allies in Congress were so determined to move the nation in the wrong direction that one could, with a clear conscience, oppose all the administration’s initiatives."

To me this is the clearest explanation cum confession offered by an ostensibly thoughtful lefty about where the heck their common sense and intellectual integrity went during the past eight years. They left them behind "with a clear conscience," in the name of morally pure opposition.

Krugman is not an idiot. And yet anyone from quick-thinking geniuses to nose-picking morons knew exactly what Krugman's opinion was going to be about any issue for the past eight years - his opinion was the opposite of whatever the Bush administration supported. Krugman substituted a reliably pure strain of reactionism for thoughtful commentary and bleated it with all the gusto of an agitated sheep. Only now that scary Republicans do not inhabit the land's highest offices does he feel free again to flex his long neglected thinking parts.

Without getting into a whole "the media is biased" diatribe, this is the problem when media classes turn into left-right cliques. Krugman spent the last eight years in blind, unthinking opposition, and probably made himself more popular because of it. The lefties didn't want to hear careful thought about a Republican administration. They wanted their smart people to give them smart sounding justifications for their automatic opposition to everything that administration attempted. Krugman more than happily danced to that tune. The fact that this schtick works just as well for right-leaning pundits doesn't change the basic point - it's a fundamentally anti-intellectual approach to punditry. Rather than using reason to determine one's opinion, the opinion comes first and reason is used simply to justify it after the fact.

Now that the need for automatic rejection of an administration's efforts has passed, we're actually getting some punditry that doesn't start with a pre-determined conclusion. As an unintended consequence Paul Krugman is actually starting to become interesting again, and it's kind of amusing that this is something he himself realizes and admits, albeit not in quite those terms.

Don't get me wrong - he's still not right. He advocates the same collection of warmed over late 20th century liberalism as any of the other conventional lefty pundits. But at least now he feels like he has to explain it. And that makes a striking difference in his commentary.

I'll come back and do a proper take down of his bad opinions later. But for now I offer a simple congratulations and welcome back to a Man of the Left. You are once again becoming readable to people who don't necessarily share your conclusions, and that's an accomplishment I didn't think you had left in you.

Posted by Doug Williams on Monday May 18, 2009 at 11:57am. 1 Comments 0 Trackbacks

Tuesday, May 12, 2009

American Idol Season Eight: Top 3

And then there were three. And what a three they are.

All but the best Idol seaons have stumbled around a bit with their top three week. Even last season, certainly one of the best, stumbled a bit on this particular week, as things built toward the long awaited David vs. David showdown.

And yet this year as things were supposed to be building toward the great Lambert / Gokey showdown too much talent got in the way and we have a third strong contender rather than a sacrificial victim. Kris Allen very much belongs in the midst of things here. What's more he brings a distinctive style which is not quite what either Adam Lambert or Danny Gokey offer. We have three disctinct and strong voices still vying for the title. It should be quite the penultimate challenge.

Of course we do have to suffer through the judging. And never has a season of Idol offered up a panel quite as certain to try to make the show all about themselves. I don't entirely blame Kara, the new judge, for this vibe. Paula's newfound sobriety is probably just as much to blame. Still.

But we shall suffer through it. The schtick this week is that the judges will pick one song for the contestants, and they will pick another of their own choice. My pre-call is that the judge's calls won't matter much. The individual choices of the contestants are going to blow wide open the audience preferences already established, as all of them will strongly assert their personalities which are VERY different from one another. We'll see how that plays out.

Anyway let's get rolling before Seacrest breaks in with a cute stunt to take us to commercial break...

(After the break... (kidding!))

Monday, May 11, 2009

Garbage In

Anthony Watts has been performing a long running survey of the surface stations monitoring temperature in the United States. With 70% of his survey completed, he posted his updated report, entitled: Is the U.S. Temperature Record Reliable?

From the executive summary (all emphases mine):

Global warming is one of the most serious issues of our times. Some experts claim the rise in temperature during the past century was “unprecedented” and proof that immediate action to reduce human greenhouse gas emissions must begin. Other experts say the warming was very modest and the case for action has yet to be made.

The reliability of data used to document temperature trends is of great importance in this debate. We can’t know for sure if global warming is a problem if we can’t trust the data.

The official record of temperatures in the continental United States comes from a network of 1,221 climate-monitoring stations overseen by the National Weather Service, a department of the National Oceanic and atmospheric Administration (NOAA). Until now, no one had ever conducted a comprehensive review of the quality of the measurement environment of those stations.

The obvious truth of the first statement I bolded above renders the final sentence nearly scandalous.

As anyone who works with data in the private sector knows, challenges to the integrity of data happen routinely - especially when the data seems to point to unexpected or alarming issues. If your project produces a report that suggests a multi-million dollar strategic initiative is failing, you'd better be damned certain that your numbers will hold up under the kind of intense scrutiny such a conclusion will inevitably bring. That's how it works in the private sector anyway.

And yet, here we are, how many years into a full blown "climate change crisis", and the government agency responsible for collecting a great deal of the data upon which the alarm is based hasn't bothered to check to see if there might be a data quality problem at the data collection points. This isn't just a minor matter. The current administration has announced plans to "transform" the entire energy sector of the economy based to a large extent on this very data.

Of course, if this survey was performed and only a few minor problems were discovered it wouldn't be much on an issue. Unfortunately for the NOAA, that is not what is being found:

In fact, we found that 89 percent of the stations – nearly 9 of every 10 – fail to meet the National Weather Service’s own siting requirements that stations must be 30 meters (about 100 feet) or more away from an artificial heating or radiating/reflecting heat source.

In other words, 9 of every 10 stations are likely reporting higher or rising temperatures because they are badly sited.

A failure rate of 20% should be considered appalling in this case. But a failure rate of 90%? Words fail.

Garbage in, garbage out - that's one of the essential aphorisms in the world of computing, and it applies especially to situations where one is relying on predictive modeling. It is only owing to such predictive models that a "climate crisis" has been declared. And yet for some reason no government agency has bothered to check the input for the kind of "garbage" Mr. Watts has uncovered on his own initiative.

There is very good reason for skeptics to question the honesty of those who grow shrill about the impending catastrophe coming from human induced climate change when the most basic of tests for data integrity seem to have escaped their attention.

Watt's conclusion is inevitable and yet still remarkable:

The conclusion is inescapable: The U.S. temperature record is unreliable.

The errors in the record exceed by a wide margin the purported rise in temperature of 0.7º C (about 1.2º F) during the twentieth century. Consequently, this record should not be cited as evidence of any trend in temperature that may have occurred across the U.S. during the past century. Since the U.S. record is thought to be “the best in the world,” it follows that the global database is likely similarly compromised and unreliable.

That statement about the global database is remarkable for two reasons. The first is that it would beg for an explanation of why and how the notion of U. S. temperature record gained such a lofty reputation. Obviously something other than actual evidence was involved here, and it certainly wasn't any track record of rigorous attention to detail.

Secondly, with all the money being thrown around by governments of the world toward "combatting global warming," shouldn't there be some spare funds to pay for a similar surface station survey outside the U. S.? Let's find out where the data truly may be reliable, and weed out where it isn't.

Read the full report (pdf link) for a far more detailed picture of the situation. The extent to which Watt's survey is ignored by the very government agencies responsible will tell us a lot about their dedication to science and integrity.

Posted by Doug Williams on Monday May 11, 2009 at 1:35pm. 0 Comments 0 Trackbacks

Wednesday, May 6, 2009

American Idol Season Eight: Top 4

I'm going to put this out there right from the start: Best. Top 4. Ever. At least that's my impression going into this week.

I don't mean any one of these is guaranteed the post Idol success of Carrie Underwood or Chris Daughtry or anything. I mean as a group, based on their talent, they stack up with the very best. On a drama level of not knowing who will win, this top four stacks up with the very best prior seasons. And I quite like the odds for post Idol success of this top four compared to other seasons as well, though that's a lot easier to see after the fact than before.

To see where I'm coming from, let's compare to the top fours of prior Idol seaons:

Season 1: Kelly Clarkson, Justin Guarini , Nikki McKibbin, Tamyra Gray - With the exception of Kelly, this season's talent level wasn't even close to later seasons. After all, it was not yet a runaway phenomenon.

Season 2: Ruben Studdard, Clay Aiken, Kimberley Locke, Josh Gracin - For a long time after this was the gold standard among Idol seasons for drama, with a season long frontrunner (Ruben) pressed down to the wire by three who were almost laughable longshots early in the season, and all of whom would follow the season with some recording success.

Season 3: Fantasia Barrino, Diana DeGarmo, Jasmine Trias, La Toya London - The "3 divas" Idol season limped into the finish after Jennifer Hudson was eliminated. Half of this field wouldn't place so highly in any other Idol season save perhaps the first.

Season 4: Carrie Underwood, Bo Bice, Vonzell Solomon, Anthony Fedorov - Carrie and Bo were running away at this point, rendering Vonzell and Anthony mere filler. Also forgotten in her post-Idol success is how Carrie often struggled not to be boring despite her obvious talent in her Idol days.

Season 5: Taylor Hicks, Katharine McPhee, Elliott Yamin, Chris Daughtry - Oddly enough biggest post-Idol stars from this field were the two who placed third and fourth - Yamin and Daughtry. Taylor Hicks, likable as he was, remains probably the weakest Idol champion ever based on post-Idol success. With the "Soul Patrol" in full swing, Taylor making it into the finals was never in doubt by this stage.

Season 6: Jordin Sparks, Blake Lewis, Melinda Doolittle, LaKisha Jones - This season was a bit of a mess, with only Jordin Sparks capturing much post-Idol mojo. Blake Lewis is remembered more for his beatboxing than his singing. Melinda Doolittle's amazing vocal talent is scarcely remembered at all.

Season 7: David Cook, David Archuleta, Syesha Mercado, Jason Castro - This group looks stronger than it truly was by the time it became the top four. Jason Castro was spent by this point, struggling hard just to learn his songs on time. Syesha Mercado was battling back against a loooong stretch of mediocrity just to stay alive. Everyone knew this was really just a contest between the Davids by now.

And that brings us to...

Season 8: Adam Lambert, Danny Gokey, Allison Iraheta, Kris Allen - Every one of these singers has enough talent to hold their own against any other season top four contestant. And each of them has shown enough combination of versatility and performance skill that they still might shake up the expected finish order. The expectation has long been it will be a Lambert/Gokey final. But would it shock anyone to see Allison OR Kris in there? It wouldn't shock me.

And that brings us to another thing - Rock Week. Best. Top 4. Theme. Ever.

Seriously, last year the climactic top 4 theme was - Rock and Roll... Hall of Fame. That's like what Rock sounded like back in the day when your dad walked to school sixteen miles uphill both ways. With all the devotion to sounding "current" paid by the Idol judges, that seemed like a bit of a joke. It was also random as heck.

But themes at this stage have been even worse before. In Season Five this was Elvis week.

This year's top 4 theme? Rock. Mentor? Slash. Any questions?

This would be a really difficult theme for most seasons to even attempt. Scroll up a bit to where I listed previous seasons' top fours and just try to imagine it. I'll wait. ... That hurt, didn't it? And that was just thinking about it.

But this season, Adam and Allison are both expected to easily handle rock. Kris is expected to be versatile enough to roll with it. Danny might go a bit too ballady, but he certainly has the vocal chops to take on the theme. It's got us wondering. It's got us speculating. It's got potential for awesome good OR awesome bad. Hit the jump to find out which.

(THIS.... is American Idol!)

Bogus Gold

Just another happy cash cow being milked to produce Hopenchange. Moo.

Friday, May 29, 2009

Wednesday, May 27, 2009

Tuesday, May 26, 2009

Tuesday, May 19, 2009

Monday, May 18, 2009

Tuesday, May 12, 2009

Monday, May 11, 2009

Wednesday, May 6, 2009

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