American Idol threw us an unexpected twist last night, expanding their expected Top 12, into a Top 13. Frankly, I wish they would have made it a top 20 and skipped this new semi-final formula, but... nothing ventured nothing gained I guess. Let's take it for what it is.
In light of the Idol producers' unexpected surprise, I'm offering one of my own this season - I'm going to handicap the odds for the Top 13.
I've had this sort of thing rattling around inside my head every previous season. Might as well spell it out to see how it holds up as things go along this year.
First, the disclaimers:
This isn't intended to be used for actual betting, just entertainment. Offer not valid in New Jersey or Vermont. Kids, get your parents permission before participating. May contain peanuts. Warning: hot liquid within. May cause drowsiness. Do not take while operating heavy machinery.
Now, on to the more relevant disclaimers:
This isn't a ranking of how much I personally
like the contestants. It's how likely I think they are to win. Most Idol seasons, my personal favorite doesn't win. Additionally, one of the things I like about this show is when one or more contestants shake up early expectations and rocket from also-ran to front-runner (see: Kelly Clarkson, David Cook). I fully expect that to happen this season as well.
Also, this isn't intended to predict the order of the contestants' exit. That would be a lot more challenging and that's not what this is. To make these odds I'm factoring in things like the potential for someone to grow boring and old to the audience with repetition, even if they look formidable to start (like most of the cast of Season Three). Also I'm factoring in whether I think someone seems to have potential to break out and prove much better than early expections in the long haul.
Now that we have all the disclaimers out of the way, here's how I see the odds...
Matt Giraud 100-1
I feel like I have to defend this one before I can even start explaining it. For the record I
don't think Matt will be the next one eliminated, see the disclaimer about this kind of handicapping above. Actually I think he's going to shine for a while once reunited with his piano. But I also think he's going to cap out as being too much of the same thing all the time. And if he tries to be something else the judges will savage him. That makes him seriously unlikely to win this thing.
Megan Corkrey 50-1
The judges are absolutely right that she's likable. Absolutely right that she has a unique, marketable style. But I'm not sure that the things that make her so special are likely to show well in head to head singing competition week after week. She's unlikely to drop a true clunker by trying to sing Celine or something. That said, she seems to have very low potential for dazzling us with an unexpected virtuoso performance either.
Jasmine Murray 50-1
We saw a hint of her youth and inexperience in her first performance. Her wildcard performance showed us she could learn, and master her nerves. But at just seventeen years old, we're likely to see those nerves come back at some point. She is also apparently intending to go the "diva" route, which means she'll be going after big, challenging vocals and there are a lot of better singers than her in this competition already. Her personality also seems a lot more tense and practiced than others, which won't endear her well to the viewing audience over time.
Anoop Desai 30-1
Anoop is going to be a fan favorite... up to a point. He's smart, telegenic, and well spoken. He sings well, though not as well as some others. Nothing he has shown us so far leads one to suspect he's going to break into the top tier of contenders at any time. He's definitely got top ten potential. Maybe even top 6 potential. But when it really gets tight at the top, I don't see room for Anoop.
Jorge Nuñez 25-1
His dominance of the Latino vote is going to keep him going for a while. His looks will keep him going longer. This amounts to one big advantage for Jorge - he will have time to show us a breakout moment or two. He will have the opportunity to expand beyond an Enrique Iglesias-style crooner. He will also have the opportunity to stumble badly in the early rounds and probably survive, which is more than most others will have. That said, I'm skeptical there's a lot of verasatility to Jorge's act. A good voice? Yes, for sure. But there needs to be more for him to win.
Kris Allen 20-1
Kris is a challenging one to place here. Frankly I think the odds of him exiting very quickly are pretty high. But the more I looked at what we know and what we don't - based on what has been broadcast so far - I have to admit there is some breakout potential here. Compared to some of the consensus front-runners so far, he's definitely flown under the radar. What's more he's definitely got serious vocal talent and stage experience. He'll need to expand his boy-band niche to have a serious shot, but stranger things have happened.
Michael Sarver 15-1
As I was doing this ranking I kept moving Michael down the list... and then kept moving him back up upon further consideration. Looking at Michael it's easy to forget how good his voice really is. The performance that won him his spot in the top
twelve thirteen was probably the
worst he' sounded in his screen appearences so far. And unlike others, he's had quite a bit of screen time. If he was relying
only on his rugged good looks and working-class back story he would cap out his potential a lot lower, kind of like a civilian version of Season Two's Josh Gracin. But because he can seriously
sing he starts creeping into the ranks of those with a real shot.
Allison Iraheta 12-1
And now we begin the ranks of the real contenders. Among these, Allison is the longest shot. She's the youngest. She's got the least experience. She seemed awkward in the ritual pre-performance banter with Seacrest in her first performance week. But... she can really sing. She's got power and range. She's got an edgy, memorable look. When performing she doesn't
seem like the youngest one in the competition, but rather transforms into a confident pro. All that said, she is very young, and the nerves and inexperience still might sneak in to trip her up. But breakout potential is definitely there as well.
Scott MacIntyre 10-1
He doesn't have the greatest voice in the competition, but no one else is quite like him either - and I don't just mean the blindness. He sings in a straightforward, pure style - more Art Garfunkel than R & B. That sets him apart from just about every other male contender. He's going to have a massive sympathy vote which is going to allow him to stumble and work things out in the early rounds. He's got a ton of performing experience before Idol. He's much better when they allow him to sit at a keyboard, which he gets to do from now on. He's also incredibly intelligent (he's a freakin' Rhodes scholar, for cripes-sake), which can't hurt as he figures out how to play to the judges and the audience.
Alexis Grace 8-1
The judges already compared her to Kelly Clarkson, so you know that voice we heard in her first performance wasn't some mirage. There are a lot of intangibles to like about Alexis. She comes across as a down to earth mom-next-door type. The pink hair gives her a distinctive look to set her apart and make her more memorable. She has a voice that shouldn't be intimidated by any theme. And she has some stage confidence which plays well to the Idol cameras. Breakout potential? One might argue she's done it once already in her first performance.
Danny Gokey 5-1
He's got the look. He's got the contemporary voice. He's got the judges' love. He's got the heart-tugging back story. He's got at least as much camera time as any other contestant this season. Not only does he have breakout potiential, he's the kind of contender the Idol producers pull out the stops to promote with extra-good lighting, and arrangements and all the other gimmicks. Were it not for just a couple of other contenders, he'd be the clear front-runner. Could he cap out and prove not very versatile? It's possible. But he's one judges are going to try to guide to the top, rather than brush off as not ready.
Lil Rounds 3-1
Can a "Fantasia" win this show twice? That's perhaps the biggest bar Lil will face as she heads into the Top Thirteen. Unlike most other Idol seasons, Lil is the only black female singer who can bring the gospel-soul vibe which is always a fan-favorite. Like Fantasia, she can easily slide into the "diva" style to show off her range and skill whenever she'd like. Unlike Fantasia, she's not battling it out with two other singers with exactly the same style (from the memory bank: Fantasia battled for her niche against Jennifer Hudson, and Latoya London in Season Three). Lil is going to have the judges cheering for her all the way. She may not be bringing something brand new to the Idol stage, but she's bringing a proven winning formula.
Adam Lambert 2-1
If there is any contestant who has the capacity to bring something totally new to the Idol stage, it's Adam. He has ridiculous vocal skill and versatility. He has extensive stage experience, so expect no jitters here. Could he take a wrong turn by going too far into threatrical showmanship? Sure. Just as likely he'll find a way to tap into that to find a performance or two that blows the rest of the contenders away. A quick stroll around the Internet tells me he's already the contender people look to for originality and creative spins on whatever theme they announce. That kind of excitement can go a long way. If he performs to the best of his ability, it might be good enough to overwhelm the best from any other contender.
So there you have it. Place your (rhetorical) bets.
Anoop is such an obvious Slumdog pick. They see how India goes nuts after the Oscar win, and they're thinking dollar signs. Ooh, let's wedge in a guy who sounded *terrible* last night just to get that huge market interested.
Jasmine was included because she's cute, young, and they needed another African-American. (There are no African-American guys.)
Let's not enough discuss why Tatiana was in the wild card round. (Yet, I thought she had by far the best voice of the gals Thursday.)
The voters are as useless as ever. Scott has an averge voice at best. Jorge got in because he cried.
Simon said it, though it's been obvious from the beginning. They're casting a tv show, not trying to find quality singers. They're looking for someone who can sell a tune that'll be forgotten a day later.
Of these 13, the only ones I'd look forward to seeing are Adam, Danny, Matt, maybe Alexis and maybe Le Round, depending on whether she's just going to yell every week.
So, I think your order is basically right at this point. Adam has just enough flaws in his voice to keep him with the pack. Danny's attitude can still get him in trouble. Le Round will have the judges, which counts for something. I think that's how Ms. Sparks eventually pushed through.
But you're watching, right? ;-)
Also, I think Anoop is pretty popular regardless of the judges.
You may be right about Anoop. But, Anoop is right there alongside Scott filed under Popular For Reasons Other Than Having A Great Voice That Cannot Be Found Anywhere Else.
anyways ...are they pimping alexis or what
anyways ...are they pimping alexis or what